🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Kabam]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

[Kabam]

Yes, in Brandenburg (by winning a direct mandate) and in Saxony-Anhalt (by switching parties).
BVB/FW actually managed both in the last state elections: They won a district (availing them to enter Parliament via Grundmandatsklausel), but they also took the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

What should be noted: BVB/Freie Wähler is not part of the federal umbrella group called Bundesvereinigung Freie Wähler, which the Free Voters in Bavaria and Saxony-Anhalt belong to.

This is why I didn't count them in my earlier post. I know they cooperate, but the structure still confuses me tbh.

[Kabam]

Baden-Württemberg

Grüne 33.5
CDU 23.5
AfD 12
FDP 11.5
SPD 10.5
Linke 3
Others 6

Rheinland-Pfalz

SPD 34
CDU 28
AfD 10.5
Grüne 9.5
FDP 7
Freie Wähler 4.5
Linke 3
Others 3.5

[Kabam]

Prediction

CDU 29
AfD 25
The Left 10.5
SPD 9.5
FDP 8
Greens 6.5
Free Voters 3.5
Others 8

[Kabam]

If the AfD voted, it's very likely that they have not all voted for him, because that was that tactically smart thing to do. They have no interest that Wegner gets 97 votes. They want to be the deciding factor.

I don't think CDU & SPD suddenly voted unanimously after all the drama. So there were probably a few AfD votes, but there is really no way to find out how many.

[Kabam]

This looks bad, they could even win in the run-off.

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1667944621442301954

[Kabam]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

[Kabam]

Anyone have any predictions regarding who wins which Stimmkreis in Bavaria?
I think the FW will win Landshut, Neuburg-Schrobenhausen and Freising, potentially also Kempten, Kehlheim and Forchheim.
Greens will keep 4 of their 6 for sure. They will probably lose the very close one in Munich and Würzburg will be very close. Maybe Regensburg could flip to them?

Your analysis looks reasonable: I think the Green Party will keep 4 of their 5 Munich seats. The 5th one was a tie in 2018, and with the Greens down slightly in the polls, they could lose this seat. I am not sure if the Freie Wähler will win any seats, it will depend if they gain ground as much as the polls say, or if voters will go to the AfD instead.

I am pretty sure that at least Aiwanger wins his Stimmkreis in Landshut.