2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My state sure was a tossup, eh?

My fault was assuming that McCain had some type of ground game, but clearly his was non-existant.

Republicans don't have a ground game in New Jersey, either.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Now that this election is out of the way. It is time to start the campaign for New Jersey Governor. It looks like the top candidates are Governor John Corzine(D) running for re-election and U.S. Attorney Chris Christie being the front-runner for the GOP. With Corzine's unpopularity, I see this as a potential pickup. Thoughts?

By looking at Obama's margin, it looks as if this state may be too Democratic for a Republican to win these days. 

You just need the right Republican.  Leonard Lance, for instance, ran at least 10 points ahead of McCain in the district (Obama carried NJ-07), and likely even much better than that.  Not much hope for any Republican, of course, if the Democratic nominee is Dick Codey, no Republican stands a chance.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Unlikely to Run/Huge Pussy Realist:
St. Sen. Bill Baroni

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And, at this point, it looks like both Crowley and Christie are in the race.

I suppose that, for Lieutenant Governor on the R side, we're looking at:

St. Sen. Bill Baroni
St. Sen. Jen Beck
County Clerk Lisa Donovan

...and possibly Murphy.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

County Clerk Lisa Donovan

Do you mean Kathleen Donovan or is there another county clerk named Donovan with a lot of clout?

I agree with you on Murphy on Lt. Gov., possibly why he will choose against running.  With Christie stepping down today as US Atty, its all but a guarantee at this point

Er, yes, Kathy Donovan.

My personal preference is Cathy DiCostanzo, but she's quite a few years out of relevance now. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some "entertainer" that I never heard of is launching a write in campaign.

http://www.politickernj.com/max/28995/hurricane-floyd-entertainer-seeks-gubernatorial-campaign-people

Not sure who this would take away votes from. I'm guessing it would take away anti-Corzine votes from Christie.

I've actually heard of him, but I wouldn't expect anyone else to have.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/corzines-net-worth-plummets-may-affect-reelection-2009-04-17.html

I've said that for a while, but actually started changing my mind recently as Goldman stock has had a massive and significant (50-60%) rebound.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Probably just knows someone personally who is moving to Wyoming.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

There's little reason think that NJ independents in 2009 will do any better than independents in 2005 or 2001.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From NRO:

David E. Johnson of the Strategic Vision polling firm tells me he's releasing a poll of the New Jersey's governor's race tomorrow that was conducted over the weekend.  It shows Republican Chris Christie leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine 47 percent to 36 percent.  Corzine's job approval is 36 percent with 54 percent disapproval.  Against Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, Corzine leads 44 percent to 39 percent  Lonegan.  Against Brian Levine — who may have to leave the race — it is Corzine 42 percent to Levine's 40 percent.  Against Rick Merkt, Corzine leads 45 percent to 30 percent

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NmVmYmIyZjMxNjE2NmNhNzk3MTIyYjExMDgzNTY4ODE=

Yes, I know SV has a house Republican effect, but even taking that into account, it's still a healthy lead for Christie, and the fifth straight poll to show Christie up by at least 9.

Brian Levine, who may leave the race?  Hah, he was thrown off the primary ballot.  He doesn't have a choice in the matter anymore.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

No one mentioned it, but Christie today essentially reached the maximum allowable to fundraise for the June primary.  State election finance law limits primary expenditures at $5 million.

How is that constitutional? The Supreme Court has always struck down campaign spending limits as a violation of the First Amendment.

It's a voluntary program.  By agreeing to the limits, the state will match you $2 for every $1 you raise.  Therefore, Christie needs to only raise $1,666,667 for the primary and the state will cut him a check for $3,333,333.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Meh, I think the whole primary/general divide is itself a sketchy way to get around campaign financing laws a lot of the time.  Is Corzine doing that too?

Christie will be spending money for his "primary"... as may Corzine?

Corzine has said that he will not seek matching funds; Christie pretty much has to accept them, since he can't self-fund.  And you seem to be a bit too dismissive of Christie's primary.  Neither Merkt nor Lonegan seem likely to win in any scenario, but Lonegan (more accurately, Lonegan's campaign manager Rick Shaftan) could cause a lot of problems, especially considering that Lonegan is getting a good chunk of matching fund change himself.

Things may very well change in the general election if Christie picks someone for LG (Crowley?) who is loaded with the kind of money that makes passing on matching funds worthwhile.  I still expect Christie to stay in the 2-for-1 campaign finance system.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't care what that poll says, Lonegan has a ceiling, and it's well below 50.  I think he'll probably get somewhere near 40, unless people start learning about Lonegan beyond what they're reading in those stupid fake newspapers that Rick Shaftan is putting out on his behalf.

Even conservative Republicans find that guy to be nuts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Christie has started to run ads going after Lonegan.

http://www.politickernj.com/matt-friedman/29253/new-christie-ad-targets-lonegan

Male voice: "Lonegan ran for Congress."

Female voice: "Lost."

Male voice: "State Senate"

Female voice: "Lost."

Male voice: "Governor."

Female voice: "Lost."

Male voice: "And that's a problem."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Shaftan's poll company also released a nugget in 2006 showing the Bergen County Freeholder race to be totally a dead heat and Republicans are looking good and..

...the poll is worse than garbage.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

By the way, the poll we're talking about has Christie at 36 and Lonegan at 34.5%. By virtue of the line and by virtue of Christie having all of them, you'd have to expect undecideds to break heavily for whomever is endorsed by the county parties (and thus on top of the ballot with the slate of incumbents).

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, you have to look for movement when all else is held constant, and not from polling company to polling company.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From PolitickerNJ:

"With about a month to go before the gubernatorial primary, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie has $3,033,463 on hand after raising a total of $4,686,183...

...Lonegan has raised almost half of what Christie has, with $2,109,093 in total, but has $481,824 on hand."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

A chance at change versus a guarantee that no change will happen.

I'm sold.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm actually halfway Republican and halfway Libertarian. I've been that way since 2005.

A Lonegan primary win could put me over into the Libertarian Party.

Uh...why?

Why would Lonegan - a libertarian Republican - winning the GOP primary push you - a libertarian - away from the GOP to the Libertarian party?

Lonegan is not a libertarian.

He is also a 'holier than thou' type.

How is he not a libertarian? The only social conservative viewpoint he has (to my knowledge) is that he's opposed to abortion.

He's pro-death penalty and really, really, REALLY against "fag marriage," too.  And he's opposed to euthanasia and drug legalization.  I'm kinda wondering what libertarian social views he has.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The more you know about Lonegan, the less you like!

I've informed my mother that she is effectively disowned if she votes for the virulently anti-gay Lonegan.  (Though she was otherwise lured in by his reckless fiscal about face.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Technical disclaimers aside, polls showing Tom Kean Jr. ahead were few and far between, and when he was leading, it was only by a couple of points.  Christie's lead is broader, more solid, and reliably consistent.  The facts are slightly off but the main message remains true: Christie's lead and standing is far more dangerous to Democrats than any recent Republican before him (save for the brief period where Forrester enjoyed double-digit leads against Bob Torricelli).

Most worrisome for Democrats: the typical late-election surge enjoyed by Democrats in New Jersey is less than the amount that Christie is leading by in poll after poll.  The guy is likeable, and his record is a tough one to smear.

Republicans are right to eye that lead nervously, of course: poll internals show the lead is built on a foundation of leading in "Whitman Democrat" counties like Bergen, Passaic, Mercer, Union, and Middlesex—places the GOP did quite well (relatively) in the 1990s but have since fallen off the cliff in favor of total Democratic rule.

I can reiterate here what most of us already know: Though New Jersey is the one of the most "independent" states in the country based on registration, it is similarly the most partisan state in the country based on election returns. Even the most partisan of states has its limit, especially in times of bad government.

Think Massachusetts, 1990. Connecticut, 1994. Rhode Island, 2002. Republicans won elections in those states, despite huge registration and PR disadvantages, by presenting themselves as credible alternatives and a check on Democratic power. So long as Christie holds his own and doesn't collapse under pressure, he's favored to win.

Corzine (2009) makes an excellent target.  He's not as toxic as Torricelli so he'll be sticking to the race, but he is toxic enough to actually lose. There will be a lot of people voting Republican in 2009 who haven't voted Republican for Governor since 1997, methinks.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The NJ ad war has really heated up on NYC OTA TV - now, probably an ad or two every local programming ad break during the news and 7PM hour.  Some other PAC is running an ad for Congressman Lance (R).  Is he facing a primary challenge?

No.  Lance won't even face a serious Democrat.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney could be helpful to Christie in fundraising, though I wonder if Christie really needs the help (especially when you consider New Jersey's constrictive and generous public financing law, which Christie has stated he intends to stay within the bounds of).

In any case, Romney needs Christie in 2012 much more than Christie needs Romney in 2009.