http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1066a308Politics.pdf
In March, 66% of voters age 18-to-29 said they’d “definitely vote” in November; now it’s down to 46%.
As a result, Obama's 8 point lead among registered voters falls to just 3 points as youth say they aren't likely to vote --
Registered voters:
Obama 50%
McCain 42%
Likely voters:
Obama 49%
McCain 46%
Also...
Former Clinton supporters:
Obama 66%
McCain 23%
METHODOLOGY - This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone
July 10-13, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,119 adults, including an
oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national
population), for a total of 209 black respondents. The results from the full survey have a
3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
Even in March, when it was 66%, it wasn't really 66%. Democrats aren't going to like this simple fact, but a good solid chunk of all these newly registered voters simply aren't going to be headed to the polls in November.
I'm just surprised that they're starting to admit it in polls this soon.