NJ-5: Garrett Faces First Well-Funded Challenge with Shulman

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/21498/blind-rabbi-has-more-money-myers

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The writing in the article isn't the best. I assume Shulman has raised 585k for the quarter? If so, this is the best the district has seen for a Dem. Very pleasant news in the race against an incumbent who out to be representing Utah, more than North Jersey.

Schulman only raised $270k last quarter. $585k is the aggregate total.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Scott Garrett is trash, but Shulman, no matter how much money he gets from the Jewish communities in Englewood, Teaneck and Fair Lawn (none of which are actually in NJ-05), stands no chance at ousting him.

Well not this time....but Garrett could be vulnerable soon enough although I hope redistricting puts Sussex, Warren, and Morris into one CD if that's possible. Also, it's not as if this is a super republican district. I think it's R +4-5?

While it may not be heavily Republican on the Presidential level (though R +4 is damned Republican for New Jersey), it is solidly Republican on the other levels.  Aside from that tiny bit of the 37th Legislative District that's buried in there, this district isn't even competitive on a State Legislative level.  Nothing but solid red territory.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Scott Garrett is trash, but Shulman, no matter how much money he gets from the Jewish communities in Englewood, Teaneck and Fair Lawn (none of which are actually in NJ-05), stands no chance at ousting him.

Well not this time....but Garrett could be vulnerable soon enough although I hope redistricting puts Sussex, Warren, and Morris into one CD if that's possible. Also, it's not as if this is a super republican district. I think it's R +4-5?

While it may not be heavily Republican on the Presidential level (though R +4 is damned Republican for New Jersey), it is solidly Republican on the other levels.  Aside from that tiny bit of the 37th Legislative District that's buried in there, this district isn't even competitive on a State Legislative level.  Nothing but solid red territory.

Yes, that is true. However, there's never been a real challenger with name ID, maybe electoral experience, and money here. Garrett got 55% last time, which isn't great. Redistricting is coming, so there's really no reason to speculate his chance of defeat because it's not gonna happen until redistricting. Also, Dems in other "more republican districts" seem to win them because they were historically democratic....which is not the case here.

Given the Republican nature of the district downballot, there won't ever be a real challenger with name ID.  It's pretty bleak for Dems in the far north.

A main problem for Democrats wanting to oust Garrett is the fact that he's from Sussex, not Bergen—he's completely insulated by solid red territory all around.  It's quite unlikely that you'd ever be able to force Garrett's home into a Democratic-leaning district without drawing fire from Pascrell (you can't include Patterson in NJ-05) or Rothman (ditto with the solidly Dem areas of Bergen County).

Garrett's margins are absolutely solid, and there's no way his seat will be even remotely obtainable without a serious 2006 or 2008 style breeze at the Dems' back.  It's not marginal—you'd have to suck a good 5 points of GOP performance out of it to flip it, which would possibly make NJ-07 more Republican by requiring it to tread north into Warren County (I doubt Lance would mind taking in more of his State Senate district into NJ-07).  Is it really worth the gamble?

The best you could do, presumably, would be to force some kind of I vs. I battle between Frelinghuysen and Garrett by forcing NJ-05 south into Morris... though I can't imagine that resulting in anything but the ousting of Frelinghuysen.  Morris County loves its mountain men almost as much as Sussex County does.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The best you could do, presumably, would be to force some kind of I vs. I battle between Frelinghuysen and Garrett by forcing NJ-05 south into Morris... though I can't imagine that resulting in anything but the ousting of Frelinghuysen.  Morris County loves its mountain men almost as much as Sussex County does.

You're better attuned to NJ politics than I am, but I would bet on Frelinghuysen. I don't think many people know or care about what kind of Republican Garett is vs. Frelinghuysen (although they'd soon find out) and I would put county loyalty and the gold value of the Frelinghuysen name over Garrett's bomb-throwing record, social conservatism, and tiny little geographic base.

Well, it entirely depends on what the final blend of the district winds up being, I suppose.  Neither Rothman nor Pascrell presumably wants any part of Garrett's district (save, maybe, for those heavily Democratic areas in the 37th), so additions of Morris would likely come at the expense of the Warren County part and Democratic areas of Bergen County.  The only way this would work is if New Jersey indeed fell to 12 CDs post-redistricting, the line drawers decided to have Garrett and Frelinghuysen throw down in a deathmatch, and draw a "safer" seat for Lance all at the same time.  (Unlikely.)

I guess what I'm saying is that it's going to be impossible to redistrict Garrett out of a job without major demographic shifts in North Bergen and the exurbs.  I mean, major long-term demographic shifts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What if Stender wins? How would that complicate your redistricting scenario?

Well, putting on my Democratic strategist hat, if Stender wins (meaning Adler wins too), and both hang on in 2010, the top priority is incumbent protection with 13 seats.

Stender will likely be deseperate to get rid of as much of Hunterdon and Somerset Counties as she can to solidify her position, and given past redistricting results, the cartographers will be happy to oblige.  The current NJ-05 will probably give up some of Bergen County to Rothman, perhaps a little bit to Pascrell if possible, all to start sinking into Hunterdon County.  (Rush Holt may also be chosen to take up more of Hunterdon/Southern Somerset now that he's viewed as "safe" and can better absorb the terrain.)

The Essex County part of Frelinghuysen's district is trending Democratic at the speed of light, so redistricters will probably want to swap that out, perhaps into the new Stender district.  (Better West Essex than Hunterdon, certainly.)  The lines of NJ-11 should probably then be pushed "wider" in the "Somerville finger"—that is, take up some of the more Republican parts of Somerset County.

Redistricters will probably want Stender's district to take up a bit more of Middlesex and Union at the expense of Pallone.

The redrawing will be tricky business, because you're giving Republicans openings in the Holt, Pallone, and Rothman seats upon their retirement without being able to totally solidify Stender.  In exchange, the current NJ-05 becomes bulletproof.  (Not much good news for Republicans there, basically.)

If redistricting takes away a seat from NJ, then either Stender or Adler is in trouble.  Big red targets on their back based on a lack of seniority.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/2008/07/28/080728ta_talk_toobin

Jeffrey Toobin should check his facts. "Like the state, the district has been leaning democratic." Ha.

It's more a linguistics issue.  It looks like the intended word there was "trending."