InTrade Presidential odds

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I would honestly not be surprised if the person who bought a share of Christine Todd Whitman had heard about the Meg Whitman buzz, and just got confused.  Some people are that foolish.  IIRC, there was a bit of a bump for Tommy Thompson in the GOP presidential nomination market back when there was buzz about Fred Thompson possibly entering the race.

This is probably the rationale, yes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Palin @ 88.9.
Pawlenty @ 0.5.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

McCain's Intrade contract is virtually unchanged from where it was before the Palin pick.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For the first time since the primaries, McCain to win the Presidency is trading above Obama to win the Presidency.  (And, perhaps, for the first time ever, GOP to win the Presidency is trading above Dems to win the presidency.)

McCain: 50.6
Obama: 49.4

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Barack Obama is now back up to 57 on Intrade—a significant rebound, but still well off from his highs.

[On a personal note, I sold off McCain a while ago when he was above 50 and I've been increasingly buying shares of Obama over the last few days (average price, 53.6).]


And just for fun, the rest of my Intrade portfolio:

+21 x 2008.Pres.OBAMA (bought @ 53.6)
+1 x NC.GOV08.REP (bought @ 50)
+7 x CO.SENATE08.REP (bought @ 27)
–30 x NH.SENATE08.DEM (bought @ 71.9)
+10 x NH.SENATE08.REP (bought @ 30.2)
–2 x NJ.SENATE08.DEM (bought @ 84)
+2 x NJ.SENATE08.REP (bought @ 16)
–5 x NC.SENATE08.DEM (bought @ 50)
–5 x NEVADA.DEM (bought @ 53)
+4 x OREGON.REP (bought @ 17.5)
+1 x VIRGINIA.REP (bought @ 47.0)
Cash, $7.95