MA Sen: AP sez Jim Ogonowksi is preparing to run against John Kerry

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yes, I agree that performing relatively well against John Kerry would be more beneficial to his long-term political prospects than finishing with a poorer showing against Rep. Tsongas.

I look forward to seeing how Mr. Moderate, our resident expert on MA politics, reacts to this news.

Well, my initial reaction is that I'm glad the Republican Party was actually able to field a candidate this time.  They sorta kinda have a habit of not doing that for statewide races they can't win anymore.  Kinda puts a damper on the whole democracy thing if there's only one option on the ballot.

He, of course, won't win (A 40% ceiling against the lackluster Kerry sounds about right).  But Republicans are lucky to have him.  (They need him.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Well, my initial reaction is that I'm glad the Republican Party was actually able to field a candidate this time.  They sorta kinda have a habit of not doing that for statewide races they can't win anymore.  Kinda puts a damper on the whole democracy thing if there's only one option on the ballot.

Ditto.  He has nothing to lose, politically, and at least it gives the anti-Kerry minority an alternative.  I was hoping he would do this.

The anti-Kerry minority is practically a majority.  The problem there is that the anti-Kerry majority has significant overlap with the anti-Republican supermajority.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction:

John Kerry (D): 65%
Jim Ogonowksi (R): 34%

I'd give Ogonowski a couple more points.  He's an infinitely better candidate than Ken Chase (and Kerry is a worse candidate than Ted Kennedy).  Maybe 60-38.