NJ-3: Adler Announces Against Saxton

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/jersey/index.ssf?/base/news-27/119031896985290.xml&storylist=jersey

That means there can possibly be a second exciting race her in NJ for Congress. The other, obviously is the Stender-Ferguson rematch. Adler is a top tier candidate. If he is able to raise near what Saxton has, I'd say there's a great chance he will win. The district is about half GOP and half dem. The dem nominee will do better than Kerry in 08 so I'd says it's not far off to say the democrat nominee for pres will carry this district.

Adler has $200,000
Saxton has $1,200,000

Possibly, but not probably.  I heard loads of promises about this district before.

Adler can probably win Camden (read: Cherry Hill), but will struggle in parts east.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The "sad" thing for rank-and-file NJ Democrats is that, so far as the moneyed interests are concerned, Congressional seats aren't worth chasing after the same way State Senate seats or Freeholder (county gov't) seats are.

The reason, of course, is that Congressmen are subject to much stricter rules regarding the funneling of contracts.  They're not cash cows; Freeholder Boards are.

I guarantee you that there will be more than one State Senate candidate this year that raises more money than John Adler does for his 2008 race.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is really Saxton's first big challenge. He was a nobody in 1990. If he does lose, it wont be by more than 7-10%. Last year's challenger wasn't well known or even known of before he challenged Saxton. Despite all of the gloom already handed down to Adler here, I think you're underestimating the numbers in the district (it's a swing district, could go either way for pres) and Adler. If I were to say he will lose, i'd say it will be:

Saxton - 52-4%
Adler - 46-8%

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.  It may be a "swing" district, but no matter—Saxton is an institution here.

If Saxton does lose, it won't be by more than 1 or 2%—but like I said, there's not much chance of him losing here.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

2000 was definitely a "big challenge" for Saxton—he was seriously targeted by the DCCC.  And he handed that superbly, winning re-election by a huge margin.

I don't know how much credit you can give him for "superb handling" when his opponent imploded well before Election Day.

Given how many candidates wind up imploding with very little prodding, it is indeed a feat for a candidate to run an error-free campaign.

You also must remember that 2000 was a very pro-incumbent environment, which helped Saxton tremendously.  We are not likely to see that in 2008. 

It wasn't that pro-incumbent.  Plenty of seats flipped, especially in California.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

It had better—Saxton started his fundraising years ago!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

According to PoliticsNJ,
Adler will be at a Rangel Sponsored "meet and greet" this wednesday along with 6 other House Candidates.

That is correct. Let the fundraising begin!

It had better—Saxton started his fundraising years ago!

Saxton has yet to say that he is definitely even running for reelection. He could decide a very hard campaign isn't worth being in the minority for and getting passed up yet AGAIN for another good committee post. In that case I would tip the scale to tossup for an Adler v. Allen race. However, I think Saxton will run.

Saxton ran for and won his seat just to serve in the minority.  I'd be very surprised if Saxton retired out of fear of a "hard" campaign, especially considering that Adler is not especially favored to win by any measure.

And I'd say that Diane Allen would have a definite advantage in a Adler v. Allen race.  After all, her legislative district is the equivalent of, what, D+10?  D+15?  It's the result of highly favorable name recognition from her time as a Philly anchorwoman—she just waltzed into the State Assembly in a heavily Democratic District in a not-so-friendly year for NJ Republicans (1995), and then easily picked up the State Senate seat two years later.

Not to mention that Diane Allen runs just as well in her heavily Democratic State Senate district (+20.6%) as Adler does in his own heavily Democratic State Senate district (+22.0%).

In this case, "Top Priority" means "Second Priority."  Notice the absence of the real top tier congressional challengers like Linda Stender.  John Unger?  Gary Trauner?  Christine Jennings?  Pffft, good luck.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I disagree if Saxton was to retire and Allen ran I would put the race into the tossup category. If for some reason Allen were to retire or not run again I think you would see that district possibly swing D if the right person ran.

If you're talking about her State Senate district, there's no chance in hell Republicans could hold it without her.