MN-03: Ramstead Retiring

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MN-03 is the kind of suburban/exurban open House district that the GOP lost in 2006.

Not so. The Republicans, generally, didn't do so badly in districts like this one in 2006 (which is why I'm sceptical of a Democrat gain). Though maybe voting patterns in 2008 will be different.

Not so. 16 of the 31 Democratic House pickups were in suburban districts. In fact, the Democrats carried the suburban House vote by a margin of 50-48 in 2006.

Here are some examples of suburban/exurban districts the Democratic won in 2006: Arizona's 5th; California's 11th; Colorado's 7th; Florida's 22nd; New York's 19th; Pennsylvania's 4th, 7th and 8th; and Texas's 22nd.  Only two of those seats (CA-11 and TX-22) were scandal pick ups.

I think I've gone over this before, but NY-19 was a scandal pick up—Sue Kelly had ties to the page program, and was specifically attacked over supposedly "looking the other way."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

IL-14: 50/50 chance Dems win

This is assuming Obama is the Dem nominee?

I think you have to assume a lot more than just Obama being the nominee for any of the Democratic political nobodies running to win in a GOP-leaning district like IL-14.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Better chance at MN-03 than IL-14, that's for sure.

Oh, Lord yes.  MN-03 could be argued as a 50/50.  No way IL-14 can be.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

MN-03 right now is contingent on candidate recruitment.  If the Democrats nominate someone too close to the middle, they'll lose support to an Indy candidate.

No, like I said, that shouldn't be a problem, Ralph Nader forever doomed that.

I wish you were right. But just last year, we narrowly lost two State Senate seats, which would've given Democrats a majority in the MI State Senate, because the Green Party siphoned off too many votes from the left (and, possibly, the disgruntled middle).

I know that when I'm disgruntled, the first thing I look for is the most bats**t nuts Green Party member I can find to vote for!