My prediction -
MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski
John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete.
The Republican Party in Massachusetts isn't likely to be giving Ogonowski any support, because I have seen little evidence that the Republican Party in Massachusetts exists in any shape and form that is capable of helping candidates.
What areas are the few Republicans in the state legislature from?
I believe it's the south shore.
Check or Hold Walter/Mr. Moderate?
There are a small spattering everywhere, mostly in the suburbs/exurbs around Springfield, Worcester, and Boston. By percentage, the GOP holds the most seats in Plymouth/Hampden Counties (at 25%); they narrowly lost a pair of open (Dem held) seats in Plymouth in 2006 that they would have picked up in a less unfavorable environment. Four years ago, the GOP held the most seats in Cape Cod, at 50% (they're now down to 17%—one in six—after dropping two consecutive open seat races there.) Here's a list by county.
STATE HOUSE (19 of 160)
Barnstable (Cape Cod): 1 of 6
Berkshire (West): 0 of 4
Bristol (South): 3 of 14
Essex (North Shore): 1 of 18
Hampden (Springfield): 3 of 12
Middlesex ("Metrowest"): 3 of 37
Norfolk (South): 1 of 15
Plymouth (South Shore): 3 of 12
Suffolk (Boston): 0 of 19
Worcester: 4 of 18
Only the smallest handful of those seats are "safe" in open seat situations. Almost all are safe so long as the incumbent seeks re-election—incumbents seldom lose in Massachusetts, Republican or Democrat. Virtually all GOP losses of the last decade have been through losing open seats. [Complicating matters for the GOP is the fact that the average GOP State Rep retires after only a handful of years; the average Democrat stays in office for a much longer period of time.] The last Republican pickup was in 2002 on Cape Cod—Jeff Perry, now the lone Republican State Rep., beat an incumbent following redistricting.
In 2006, the GOP lost a seat in Metrowest (Sue Pope, first Republican to lose re-election since 1992), and lost an open seat in Barnstable (a former
very gay and unstable roommate of mine lost an open seat race to a lesbian in a district including Provincetown).
STATE SENATE (5 of 40)
North Shore: 2 (Tarr, Tisei)
Springfield: 1 (Mike Knapik)
Metrowest: 1 (Scott Brown)
South Shore: 1 (Rob Hedlund)
The GOP lost two open Senate seats in the past four years: one in Metrowest, and one in the Springfield area. None of the five would be safe in open seat situations; indeed, Democrats already hold the most Republican State Senate district in the state (won with >20% in an open seat). Republicans did, however, pick up the Brown seat in a 2004 Special.
EDIT: Fixed some percentages.
