Rothenberg Political Report: Governor rankings for 2007-08

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Looks right, although I'm not sure why Minner's seat is considered safer than Easley's. (I'd put NC at Safe and Delaware at Likely.)

I'm pretty sure an open seat in North Carolina shouldn't be labeled as "Safe Democrat."  I agree with you about moving DE back to the likely Democrat category -- Republicans did surprisingly well there in 2004.

I do wonder where Blunt's approvals will be in eight months.  His numbers have been recovering lately to the point where they're "not that bad."

Also, Barbour's seat should be listed as "Likely Dem Pickup," because Eaves is resonating with the voters and Barbour is a down dirty Rethug.  That is all.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Meanwhile, Kansas and Wyoming are always safe Republican, and Rhode Island will go Democratic because the Republican Party there has no bench.

Next!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

RI has a republican governor due to Almon having high approvals at the time, and Carcieri just came in at the right time. Just like Mitt Romney came in due to Cellelucci high approvals at the time. Approvals of governors matter as well.

Again, thanks for playing, but Jane Swift was Governor when Romney ran (he ousted her from the GOP Primary in a bloodless coup).  Swift was incredibly unpopular.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Eventhough Almond's and Swift's were low, among moderate republicans and independent votes, they remained steady and their successors were able to capitalize on their moderate appeal.  They weren't scary republicans like their conservative counterpart, as well as what you stated.

Republicans supported Swift so hard that she only trailed Mitt Romney by, like, 60 points in the GOP primary!

I'm sure Almond was popular enough among the RI GOP, but I think that gets you to about 10 or 15% of the vote.