The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I used to live in PA-15.  It's quickly becoming a New York City (!) commuter district, despite being 70 or 80 miles from the city.  The cities of Bethlehem and Allentown have been rotting on the vine since Bethlehem Steel died.  Meanwhile, the "suburbs" are quickly booming with new development.

It used to be a Reagan Democrat district, but the unions are fast disappearing.  It's becoming a commuter Republican district.

Looking at election trends, suburban Essex County NJ was the first to go Democrat after long being a GOP stronghold, then Union County's suburbs fell to Democrats, now Somerset County is moving towards the toss-up column, and Hunterdon County's 2006 results show a marked decrease in GOP performance over years prior.

The reason: exurb-loving Republicans are moving west.  $500,000 goes a lot farther in PA-15 than it does in NJ-07.  Just about everyone I grew up with in High School ten years ago moved to Pennsylvania to start their families.

Dent was incredibly popular in his Democratic-leaning Allentown (city) based District, and he's a terrific fit for the swing district.  I expect him to run statewide at some point, possibly for Senate -- the Lehigh Valley is influential enough to deserve its own statewide candidate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Dent probably doesn't have to worry about any of those scenarios too much.  Lehigh Valley Democrats couldn't even get someone on the primary ballot last time.