What are Obama's odds of reelection/defeat? (user search)
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  What are Obama's odds of reelection/defeat? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What are Obama's odds of reelection/defeat?  (Read 3733 times)
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« on: May 16, 2011, 11:57:25 AM »
Quote from: pbrower2a on May 16, 2011, 10:43:59 AM
The assumption is that with two months to go, politicians just don't lose leads larger than 8%. One month to go? Politicians don't lose 7% leads, which put Colorado and Virginia out of contention.

What? Fast and hard narrowing happens all the time. Roy Barnes was leading by 11 the week before the election. Assuming a fast narrowing can't happen leads to "dumb" political analysis.
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