Advertising Notes - Where the Dems and Reps are Putting Their Money

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Smart move by the NRSC. I really think that this one is going to go Republican in November. Manchin looks good now, but he could have a glass jaw—no one has ever tried swinging at it before.

The obvious card for Manchin to play is the Byrd card. Put together an ad with Byrd's family members saying "blah blah blah, my [father/grandfather/uncle/second cousin once removed] Robert Byrd served West Virginia for years, and Joe Manchin is the man to continue his legacy".

"It's not the Kennedy Byrd seat. It's the peoples' seat."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Given the current state of Massachusetts polling, seeing MA-10 on that list is no surprise. Independents (unenrolleds) are going GOP by about 2:1 here this year in the down ballot polling I've seen.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huge props to Sam for organizing this thread -- this is immensely useful information for prognostication.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As I noted in another thread, the DSCC is pouring $300,000 into Blumenthal's race.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42964.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As I noted in another thread, the DSCC is pouring $300,000 into Blumenthal's race.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42964.html

DSCC must think Blumenthal is vulnerable.  Politico says the buy was in the Hartford TV market, (presumably) not the NYC market. 

Well, $300,000 is wasted in NYC.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Is there something in the polling that I'm missing?  Or was his debate performance that bad?

Well ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jkU3RSfDGE

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Excellent. Kagen was an embarrassment.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Excellent. Kagen was an embarrassment.

Unions just dropped $750k in this one district, and Kagen is a self-funder.

He has a competitive race and may lose, but this is not a sign that he is gone like Driehaus.

If Kagen wins, then Dems have held the house.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Supposedly, the GOP has made (but is not yet confirming) a $500,000 commitment to MA-10. This is from the Boston Phoenix which ... well, it's not exactly the best source of news for this stuff. But it's something.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The same article, FWIW, also said that internal polling had Perry leading.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm not sure Halvorson was "basically safe up until a month ago," but it shouldn't be a surprise that the Democrats most expecting a hard, brutal re-election race are the best prepared and most likely to win one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Interesting that both sides apparently don't believe Paul has KY sewn up yet.

The ad buys in KY are quite small compared to other states.

Meanwhile, are Republicans serious about California? I mean, really?