Kennedy Special Election Omnibus Thread

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

With open Senate seat, a long list of hopefuls
By Frank Phillips, Globe Staff

For the past six decades, it has been known simply as the "Kennedy seat," a Senate perch occupied and fiercely guarded by the first family of Massachusetts politics.

Now, Edward M. Kennedy's death sets the stage for a furious succession battle, the first such opening of a highly prized seat since the state’s junior senator, John Kerry, won election in 1984.

...

State law requires Governor Deval Patrick to set a special election within 145 to 160 days after a Senate vacancy. A primary must be held six weeks before the general election. Before his death, the senator made a personal appeal to Patrick and state legislative leaders to change the law to allow Patrick to make a temporary appointment.


Hence, state law requires a special election on Jan. 19, Jan. 26, or Feb. 2, 2010. Presumably, a February 2 date will be ruled out as it would force a Primary election three days before Christmas.

Expect a primary on December 8, or possibly December 15th, of this year.

Possible candidates listed by the article:

Democrats
Rep. Steven Lynch (D-South Boston), $1.4M on account
Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Somerville), $1.2M on account
Attorney General Martha Coakley (D-Medford)
Former Rep. Marty Meehan (D-Lowell), $4.8M on account
Former Rep. Joseph Kennedy II, ~$2M on account

Republicans
State Sen. Scott Brown (R-Wrentham), $69K on account
Former US Attorney Michael Sullivan (R-Plymouth)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We need a Kennedy in the seat.

The only ones left are Joe Kennedy (D-Venezuela) and Patrick Kennedy (D-Betty Ford).  Pass.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

well, yeah, there hasn't been a seat open in MA in 25 years and the bench is oceans deep.  most of them are pricks, unfortunately.

Nah, Coakley's great, and I have a lot of respect for Capuano, my congressman. I'll probably vote for Coakley in the primary if her national credentials are up to snuff. I'd vote for either over Scott Brown.

I'd like to see a strong moderate Republican get into the race, or even a respectable conservative like Joe Malone.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I'm changing this thread into a catch-all for the Special Senate Election to be held in Massachusetts, presumably either on Jan. 19 or Jan. 26, 2010.

Today's (or yesterday's, whichever) developments:

There's not much going on over on the Democratic side of the line. Everyone expects AG Coakley to run—she put a poll out in the field earlier this year when Kerry's name was floated as an Obama appointee. Lynch is all but guaranteed to run, too.

Taking themselves out of contention—though neither were really in serious contention in the first place—are Reps. Barney Frank and Bill Delahunt.

Speaking of not seriously being in contention, Romney's people officially confirm to Politico what we already knew: that he's not going to be a candidate for U.S. Senate.

State Senator Scott Brown remains the most likely candidate on the GOP side, though other sources have thrown Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey's name in the mix. Romney's people did name names on NPR, though: former ambassador (and former Mass GOP moneyman) Chris Egan.

There are whispers about former Gov. Cellucci too—he's back in Hudson, MA—but those are nothing more than whispers.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I guess I'm going for Capuano.

I want to see him vetted first.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I was thinking the same, no offense to MM or Walter.

I think it's more a testament to her focus on work over partisanship.  I'll grant that I don't know much about her other than the fact that she's been a good prosecutor and Attorney General.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, and lest we forget, WaPo has speculation over who Patrick will name once the legislature crams through a change to succession law:

Former Gov. Mike Dukakis  (ugh)
Former AG Scott Harshbarger (ugh)
Former Treasurer Shannon O'Brien (ughx2)
Paul G. Kirk, chairman of the JFK Pres. Library

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

IDK what her chances are

oh oh me me i do i do



zero.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Meanwhile, in the real world...!

We have bi-partisan consensus as to who should fill Kennedy's seat for the interim (even though it's not legal to do so yet—technicalities, technicalities):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The article also mentions former Rep. Kennedy as a possible candidate for the Senate special election, specifically that he's being urged by his fellow Kennedys to run.

The Boston Globe adds that if Kennedy gets into the race, it'll be a lot less exciting (and crowded):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not much news on the GOP side, except confirmation from sources that Former LG Kerry Healey is considering a run.  (Yawn.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Joe Kennedy is not some 800lb gorilla despite what the Kennedy-loving press wants to believe. There is no way he would clear the field when he failed to clear a much weaker field in 1998 for Governor, and is a much weaker and more controversial candidate now. The candidates who are considering dropping out are candidates without independent bases of support who need to win with 20%. Coakley is not going to be scared by Kennedy, nor is Lynch likely to be.

Presumably, though, his stock has rebounded considerably since 1998 (grief nets a lot of sympathy votes), and a quick election process works in his favor.  A lot of people will over look his faults simply because he's a Kennedy.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

LOL, Curt. We know you're not running. Stop it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Damn it, I hoped I'd the first to report this

Anyway, good

By the way, LOL at the Boston Herald for pretending that Joe running would have been a good thing.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So, Lynch already lost, he wasn't invited to the union dinner he wanted to go to on Labor Day because he's skeptical of the public option.

Without unions backing him 100%, he won't be able to get to the 30% or so he needs to beat Coakley.  He's pro-life and pro-war, so he's gotta have some gimmick, and Lynch' previous gimmick for special elections was that he was a die-hard unionist who used to be a steelworker or what have you.

In Massachusetts, being a pro-life, practicing Catholic Democrat does qualify as something of a "gimmick."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I assume Coakley can easily clear 25% though, as the the only statewide elected official and the only woman in the race [unless Vikki change her mind].

Right.  This is going to look much more like the Tsongas (Meehan) special election primary than the Lynch (Moakley) special election primary.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I see Mihos as a bit of a flake too, but he's a rich flake who will at least make the special election interesting.  (More than anything, I'm just glad to get him out of the gubernatorial race.)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What exactly is a "selectman"? Is it like a city councilor?

Yeah, that's what they call them up here. We also have "town meeting."  It's like a weird throwback to 1785.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Had Romney maintained better relations with the legislature he might have been able to weasel a temporary appointment out of them in 2004. But by August he had no allies left who were willing to stand with him. My state senator was the only Democrat to vote against the law change.

LOL, nah.

(FWIW, the Senate is much worse off since Charlie Shannon died.)

In 2004, The Massachusetts Legislature enacted the legislation providing for a special election to fill a Senate vacancy, in order to prevent then Republican Governor Mitt Romney from appointing a Republican to the Senate in the event that John Kerry were to win the Presidency, an extremely short sighted, self serving and partisan action.  At that time, Senator Kennedy himself made personal appeals to Massachusetts Democratic legislative leaders to pass the bill, which had been stalled prior to his request. 

It is also worth noting that Massachusetts Republicans attempted to revisit the bill in 2006, offering an amendment to allow for a temporary successor well after Kerry lost his election and in the waning days of a lame duck Romney administration.

I guess it'd have gone over better if Kennedy had made a special appeal.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

We have a Republican candidate.  It's not especially exciting, because that candidate is almost guaranteed to lose, but allow me to build up suspense anyway.  It's quiet on the Democratic side today.

First, it's not going to be self-funding millionaire Christie Mihos. We confirmed that yesterday.

State Senator Scott Brown, assumed by most to be the GOP candidate for U.S. Senate, will not run.

So who is running?  Why, it's a familiar face—former MA State Represenative, 1982 Gubernatorial candidate, Secretary of Transportation, and George W. Bush Chief of Staff Andy Card.

(Okay, he's not officially announced.  But he's running.  Scott Brown endorsed him last night.)

Fly high, lead balloon!  Fly high!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

"Rising star in the state GOP" State Sen. Scott Brown declareth:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2009/09/scott_brown_to.html

lawl, what a mess

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Party candidates have to collect 10,000 signatures by October 20, which is 38 days from now. Can he manage that?

Almost certainly. The MA GOP will actually do work for the few races it deems "important."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

More big lulz: Jack E. Robinson has taken out papers and is collecting signatures!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

big surprise: Lynch drops out, probably because the field didn't get crowded enough for him to win against Coakley

Looks like this thing isn't even going to be interesting.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

big surprise: Lynch drops out, probably because the field didn't get crowded enough for him to win against Coakley

Looks like this thing isn't even going to be interesting.

You think Coakley will cruise against Capuano?

The suburb-friendly woman without a controversial vote history against the former mayor of Somerville?  I mean, I know how my CD will vote, but anything from Newton on west, Arlington on north, and Braintree on south will be going for Coakley in droves.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This quote about the possibility of giving Deval appointment power says all you need to know:

"If they want to do it, they'll find a way to do it, and they'll squash us," said Senate minority leader Richard Tisei, a Wakefield Republican.

It also says something that it hasn't happened already.

(Hat tip to Blue Mass Group, who makes a terrific argument that said appointment may not be guaranteed.)

The suburb-friendly woman without a controversial vote history against the former mayor of Somerville?  I mean, I know how my CD will vote, but anything from Newton on west, Arlington on north, and Braintree on south will be going for Coakley in droves.

Yes, I'd decided this weekend I was voting for Coakley over Capuano. I wonder how many young and non-native liberals in our district even know who Capuano is or what his record is.

Not many, but that population in Somerville is inherently transitory.  Capuano is very well liked by "old" Somerville, but I bet Coakley will outpoll him amongst "new" Somerville.  Not that it's important what Somerville does, but so long as turnout is decent, the statewide primary electorate is going to look a lot more like "new" Somerville (politically, that is).

You could, perhaps, have put it more diplomatically

I can rewrite it and dumb it down a little: "Smart lady will beat slick man."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

http://wonkette.com/237494/mass-state-senator-unleashes-devastating-im-rubber-youre-glue-defense

hahaha, old story but a keeper  (could be mildly NSFW but definitely hilariously relevant)

Scott Brown is an egotistical, two-faced prick.  It will be satisfying to see him lose a race for once.