8 out of 11 is not deserved
pollwatch99-b
Jr. Member
Posts: 548
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« on: February 17, 2008, 02:05:06 PM » |
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« edited: February 17, 2008, 02:19:03 PM by pollwatch99-b »
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I've found Barone to be an objective analyst.
"My bottom line take: The turf looks fairly favorable to Clinton, provided she wins Ohio and Texas March 4. Not favorable enough, perhaps, for her to overtake Obama in "pledged" delegates, but enough to keep the overall delegate count excruciatingly close, unless the super delegates start cascading to Obama"
Let's take his predictions assuming Obama wins WI and Hawaii. Of the next 18 contests, Hillary is unlikely to catch him in pledge delegates ( as implied by Barone, which I agree with ). That will give Hillary wins in less than 20 contests while Obama has won 30+ contests. Unless she blows out OH, TX, and PA, he figures to lead in the popular votes across all the contests (my view).
That leaves the contest with Obama having the most pledge delegates, the most "state" wins by a large margin, and the largest amount of popular votes. Assuming that Obama hold the lead over McCain in national polls, he is the democrat with the best polling chance to win.
That leaves Hillary with two ways to get the nomination (1) have the super delegates override the primary results or (2) change the rules around FL and MI
Could happen but it's a real long shot at this point
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