What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out? It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.
The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.
I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East. 1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps. The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me. Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West. We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well. The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county.
Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.
So thought Chris Shays after 2006.
And I would think PA 6 is the equivalent of CT 4 politically plus Shays was more socially liberal. We should have made a stronger attempt against Gerlach in 2008. The sit-down campaign we ran last year still was a 52-48 result.
The difference is that I don't think Shays has had races since 2002 in which the results were almost always the same. Gerlach has a near lock on 51% of the voters. You need Dinniman to break it. This Pike guy isn't "the one."
By the way, Gerlach is already swinging at Pike - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Gerlach_Pike_is_a_limousine_liberal.html
If the DCCC had put money in PA-06 in the final weeks of 2008, Gerlach would have likely lost. The fact that he won by just 52%-48% against a nobody who spent little money shows how Democratic PA-06 has become.
