Pennsylvania Congressional Races

[Mr.Phips]

I would currently agree that PA-04 is really the only seat that Republicans have a real shot at picking up in PA.  Carney seems to be doing much better in PA-10 than anyone predicted a year ago. 

[Mr.Phips]

Not if they lose PA-06. Not all that likely, but nor are most of the races you point out.

I've been waiting six years for Jim Gerlach to lose. Ever since he defeated Dan Wofford, son of Harris, who is one of my heroes. I guess there's always 2010.

Yep, the man seems seems to be made of teflon.  The ironic thing is that if the DCCC had focused on PA-06 in 2002 the way they did in 2006, Wofford would have likely won.  Instead, Democrats decided in 2002 to throw money into either easy pickups like MD-02 and MD-08 or open races they ended up losing in landslides like NH-01 and NM-02. 

[Mr.Phips]

Why did Mike Fitzpatrick not run a rematch?  I think he could have won

Very unlikely.  That district is increasingly Democratic and Murphy is very popular there. 

[Mr.Phips]

Jason Altmire hasn't really lived up to his "moderate Democrat" label.  Bob Novak highlights this in a recent article from Human Events
(http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=26694)

"But that surely is not the case with the only other selected Blue Dog with a perfect Democratic record on the eight issues: Rep. Jason Altimire (R-Pa.). He is a former Congressional aide and health industry lobbyist, and there does not seem to be anything conservative about him. He apparently joined the Blue Dogs because he represents a swing district where former Rep. Melissa Hart (R-Pa.), whom he defeated in 2006, is trying again in 2008."

I wouldnt really call Bob Novak an independent election prognosticator. 

[Mr.Phips]

I wisht people would stop talking about presidential coattails. I mean, pleeeze. When have those last existed in the US to any relevant extent? In the 1950s, that's when.

Coattails, of a somewhat different sort, made a reappearance in 2006, of course - Democratic Party coattails. Or rather, Congressional Republican negative coattails that in some areas reached down into local elections. Whoever said it wasn't lying or exaggerating about taking the GOP brand being taken off the shelf.
And yeah, it's definitely possible that party label coattails will pull Obama into the White House.

One could argue that the Democrats would've won the Florida Senate seat in 1988 if Dukakis didn't do so badly there. Though the overall point is valid.

I'd say Gubernatorial coattails played a big role in New Hampshire in 2006 though.

Or you could argue that Tom Daschle would have been reelected in 2004 and Democrats would have beat Jim Bunning in Kentucky if John Kerry had not done so poorly in both states.