Is the Republican South Starting to Crack?

[Mr.Phips]

This is certainly possible, but Democrats have to get smarter about redistricting in the South than in 1992.  They started to get smarter in 2002 in Maryland. North Carolina and also in Georgia by making the black majority districts 50%-55% black rather than 70% black.  They need to continue this strategy in Alabama, Florida(unlikely they will control this), Louisiana, and Mississippi in 2012.  AL-02 could be made much more fertile for Democrats if the 62% black AL-07 could transfer a good number of its black belt counties to it in exchange for heavily Republican and surburban Autuga and Elmore counties.  In LA-02, a good number of African Americans could be transfered to LA-06 to make that much safer for Don Cayaoux.  In MS-03, many African American delta counties could be transfered to MS-01 to help Travis Childers.  This would help Democrats in the South overwhelmingly and could even give them back a majority of the delegation. 

[Mr.Phips]

How's Louisiana's Congressional map going to look after redistricting, considering they'll lose a district and the changes of population within the state (growth in Baton Rouge, shrinkage in New Orleans)?

It will probably lose one seat and LA-02 will have to expand outward to pickup some Conservative areas.  Instead of being 64% black, it will probably have to be around 55% black.