Senate Pickups?

[Mr.Phips]

Democratic pickups, NH, CO, NM, and VA. Also possibly OR and with AK if the Democrats couldn't win there in 2004 what makes anyone think they can in 2008 even with all the scandals that are plaguing Stevens?

Republican pickups, Possibly LA?   

2004 was a very good year for Republicans and Murkowski was saved only by Bush's 61%-38% margin. 

[Mr.Phips]

1) Dems get pickups in Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire,  Oregon and Minnesota

2) Republicans pickup Louisiana

Net +5 for Democrats

I agree, except that one of the "New" states could hold.  Net gain of four Democrats.  54 D, 45 R, 1 I (Caucuses with the D's).

2012 has the potential for being a Democratic Waterloo, depending on the presidential election.

I'll predict a net loss for the D's in the House, but minor (1-2).

I think the House depends on who wins the Presidency.  If Democrats win it, they pick up a couple.  If Republicans win it, they pick up one or two. 

[Mr.Phips]

As of now...

The only pickups will be New Hampshire and Colorado. Net gain of two.

Who's going to defeat Mark Warner?

Oh, wow, totally forgot that one. I think I forget about it because it is so safe Dem that one would assume it currently held by a Dem incumbent. So let's revise my previous prediction:

Pickups - New Hampshire, Colorado and Virginia. Net gain of three.

I'd be interested to hear why you think Colorado is more likely to change hands than New Mexico. I'm not challenging the idea, but it seems as if Tom Udall is polling considerably more strongly than Mark Udall, and the fact that the Republicans will have a serious primary in New Mexico but not in Colorado surely can't help.

The GOP primary in NM will hurt us in the short term but, in the end, I think that battle will really prepare us for a tough General. I also think that both Pearce and Wilson (I'm supporting Pearce) are much stronger than Schaffer in Colorado.

Come on now.  This is a state that the Democratic nominee will win(unless the nominee is McCain) and they will bring Udall in with them.