VA-01 Results

[Mr.Phips]

This one is over.  To even have a chance he had to win Prince William and Newport News by large margins. 

[Mr.Phips]

Positives for the GOP:

Despite low turnout conditions and several campaign visits from the current Governor and the extremely popular former Governor, Rob Wittman prevailed by the normal Republican margin in the district.

The Hillary attack mailer did not backfire and may have helped rally Wittman's base.

Negatives for the GOP:

The bankrupt NRCC spent nearly $100k on a blowout race; the DCCC spent $0.
Rob Wittman's open State House seat will likely be won by Democrat Pollard in a special election.

This should be a wake up call to Democrats telling them that they should not nominate Hillary. 

[Mr.Phips]

A 61%-38% margin is pretty decent for a special election here.  I fail to see how Hillary attack mailers would fail in this part of Virginia - who thought that?

There were reports that some VA GOP operatives thought the flyers would backfire. Evidently, these fears were unfounded.

As Mr Phips has already noted, this special election adds a minor amount of momentum to the argument that nominating Hillary will create negative coattails for the down-ticked Democrats.

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues and a Southerner who has transformed himself from the darling of the DLC to the toast of Daily Kos in just two years.

The difference with nominating Obama is that he does not turn out the right wing the way Hillary does.  Republicans have a much softer view of him than they do of Hillary. 

[Mr.Phips]

Unfortunately for Democrats, the party's two other leading candidates include an African-American who lacks gravitas and experience on national security issues [...]

Although comparing Obama with Huckabee, even Obama's supposed negatives are advantages.

And that cant be said with Hillary Clinton.  Her running against Huckabee would be a nightmare combination for Democrats.