list of GOP retirements?

[Mr.Phips]

If I was a really insane man with a sick betting side, I'd be tempted to make the wager that by the time election day rolls around in 2008, NM-01 will be below NM-02 on your list. 

As it is right now, NM-02 should be up a level and WY-AL and OH-07 should be off the list (OH-07 mainly b/c the GOP will have an excellent candidate there).

Sheriff White does match the archetype of the macho man turned Congressman. It worked well in swing districts like WA-08, IN-08 and NY-24.  I agree that the general will be quite competitive, but I attribute that largely to the comparative strength of the GOP candidate.

While futurology is an uneven science, at best, sometimes predicting technological advancements  is more accurate than trying to prognosticate about congressional elections. Who could've guessed in 2005 that OH-02 and WY-AL would play host to closer races than did CT-04 and PA-06, which were home to two of the closest incumbent reelections in 2004.

That said, I think NM-01 and NM-02 will parallel the 2006 election results in NV-02 and NV-03. While the Democrats had an arguably stronger candidate in NV-02 and will have a top-notch candidate in NM-02, the district's partisan tendency dominate the electoral  outcome. This helps explain why Tessa Hafen, an inexperienced mediocre fundraiser, nearly toppled savvy swing district incumbent Jon Porter.

The Democrats' fourth choice candidate in NV-03 is a Clark County Proesceutor Robert Daskas.  Typically, being a the 4th choice for a job is not a ringing endorsement. In the case of Daskas, this has more to do with the strength of the Democratic bench than it has to do with Daskas' shortcomings as a candidate. The expected up swell in Hispanics registering to vote for the Presidential 's election is sure to benefit the Democrat in this district.





For now:
NM-01: Toss-up/tilts Republican
NM-02: Leans Republican
NV-03: Toss-up/ tilts Republican

You would seriously rate NM-01 as Tossup/tilt Republican?  This is a district that will likely go for Hillary Clinton and handily for Tom Udall.  I don't think any Republican can buck that current unless they are an incumbent. 

[Mr.Phips]

If I was a really insane man with a sick betting side, I'd be tempted to make the wager that by the time election day rolls around in 2008, NM-01 will be below NM-02 on your list. 

As it is right now, NM-02 should be up a level and WY-AL and OH-07 should be off the list (OH-07 mainly b/c the GOP will have an excellent candidate there).

Sheriff White does match the archetype of the macho man turned Congressman. It worked well in swing districts like WA-08, IN-08 and NY-24.  I agree that the general will be quite competitive, but I attribute that largely to the comparative strength of the GOP candidate.

While futurology is an uneven science, at best, sometimes predicting technological advancements  is more accurate than trying to prognosticate about congressional elections. Who could've guessed in 2005 that OH-02 and WY-AL would play host to closer races than did CT-04 and PA-06, which were home to two of the closest incumbent reelections in 2004.

That said, I think NM-01 and NM-02 will parallel the 2006 election results in NV-02 and NV-03. While the Democrats had an arguably stronger candidate in NV-02 and will have a top-notch candidate in NM-02, the district's partisan tendency dominate the electoral  outcome. This helps explain why Tessa Hafen, an inexperienced mediocre fundraiser, nearly toppled savvy swing district incumbent Jon Porter.

The Democrats' fourth choice candidate in NV-03 is a Clark County Proesceutor Robert Daskas.  Typically, being a the 4th choice for a job is not a ringing endorsement. In the case of Daskas, this has more to do with the strength of the Democratic bench than it has to do with Daskas' shortcomings as a candidate. The expected up swell in Hispanics registering to vote for the Presidential 's election is sure to benefit the Democrat in this district.





For now:
NM-01: Toss-up/tilts Republican
NM-02: Leans Republican
NV-03: Toss-up/ tilts Republican

You would seriously rate NM-01 as Tossup/tilt Republican?  This is a district that will likely go for Hillary Clinton and handily for Tom Udall.  I don't think any Republican can buck that current unless they are an incumbent. 

The GOP has recruited their number one candidate in this district. When I make predictions about Congressional races, I place a premium on candidate recruitment. That's part of the reason why I was right early on about Heath Shuler toppling Charles Taylor in NC-11 but wrong about Jim Leach losing to some unknown college professor. In wave elections, as you are well aware, candidates who shouldn't win, can win. The laws of political gravity are obeyed in non-wave election cycles. Since it's unlikely to 2008 will be as strong of a partisan year as 2006, I believe that candidate recruitment will rise in importance.

When one looks at NM-01, one finds a swing district with a slight Democratic lean that some how has been represented by Republicans for over three decades. Seems like prime Democratic pick-up territory, right? While on paper this district is Democratic, it's many politically nuances, as Sam Spade can attest, make its political makeup a little less predictable than one may think. Martin Heinrich, the likely Democratic candidate, is neither a Hispanic nor a   moderate. This will leave him vulnerable in a mostly moderate, Hispanic district like NM-01.

The way the Democrats win this race is by playing up the immigration issue. It worked in TX-23, a district replete with culturally conservative Chicanos who soured on the GOP after the Sensenbrenner bill. If Heinrich is the candidate with a reasonable position of immigration (ie., a balance between enforcement and incentives), the Democrats will likely win. Otherwise, Sheriff White will become bosom buddies with Sheriff-turned-Congressman Reichert, who also represents a nominally Democratic district.

I don't know.  In an open seat race in a Presidential year, people are more likely to vote straight ticket.  I don't know how many people are going to go into the polling both and say "Im voting for Hillary Clinton, but I am going to vote against a Democrat in the open seat House race".  That just doesnt seem to happen anymore.  Look at what happened in NY-27 in 2004.  This was another Dem leaning district that a Republican had held for years and Republicans thought they could hold it with a popular county comptroller in a Presidential year.  Unfortunately for them, the Democratic Presidential vote was too strong to withstand and the Democrat won. 

Also keep in mind that the Clinton campaign is likely going to register and turn out thousands of new Hispanic voters who likely to vote straight ticket Democrat.  All of this only helps Heimrich.