This is one of the sleeper races I'm watching.
Personally, I would never consider any PVI R or D +3/4 open seats "sleeper races", but maybe that's just me. Should be an interesting primary.
Interesting point. Let me elucidate why I think IL-14 will be competitive. In 2004, IL-14 voted 55-44 for Bush; In 2004, WI-08 voted 55-44 for Bush. Since 1872, this seat had been held by the GOP for 118 of the last 132 years. It's a largely rural area that's about as ancestrally GOP as one can find in the Upper Midwest. IL-14 is a similar district. Denny Hastert's home district is also a traditional Republican stronghold. Both of these districts care more about parochial issues than social issues. The voters in IL-14 elected Republican Denny Hastert in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote; The voters in WI-08 elected Republican Mark Green in 2000, 2002, and 2004 with around 70% of the vote.
In 2006, WI-08 Democrats ran a feisty, rich allergist who outspent his GOP opponent en route to a 51/49 victory. In 2008, IL-14 Democrats are likely to run a feisty, rich scientist/businessman who will likely outspend his GOP opponent en route to a_______. That sentence will be finished by choice of the presidential nominees, the situation in Iraq, and other, intangible factors.
I wouldn't blithely knock this race off the radar simply because it R+4. This isn't a die-hard partisan area like TX-22 or CA-50--- voters here care more about the price of grain than they do about guns, gays, and god.
IL-14 is more Republican than WI-08 is. WI-08 actually voted for Clinton in 1996 and came very close to going for Dukakis in 1988. IL-14 is trending Democratic, but not enough for it to be as competitive as WI-08.
