PA-08 2008 matchup

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy/Murphy by a comfortable margin

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

[Mr.Phips]

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

I think he still woudl have lost.  This is a district that just has trended more and more Democratic and the voters are beginning to vote that way at the Congressional level.  This same type of thing happened to Democrats who tried to reclaim their seats in the South after 1994.

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

I have years of Almanac's of American politics that I am always going through.  This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.  I have also studied how Peter Kostermeyer was elected here in the 1970's and 1980's when the district was very Republican(Bush 41 got 61% here and Reagan got 63% in 1984).  He did so by being economically populist and being terrific with constituent services.

[Mr.Phips]

Fitzpatrick/Murphy

So you'd vote for a guy who casts a few token environmental votes (like Gerlach basically) and who votes for John Boehner as Speaker over a guy who'd be just as good on those issues, and many more who votes for Nancy Pelosi and Speaker?

Token environmental support? Fitz has been a champion for open space and was endorsed by the Sierra Club.

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I never said that it will all be perfectly fine. I said I don't think it will be as big of an issue. You shouldn't expect it to get as much attention and bring more support your way when we are two years away.

The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

They were happy with Fitz on those issues. Believe me, if it wasn't for Murphy being an Iraq war vet, the race wouldn't have been that close.

I think he still woudl have lost.  This is a district that just has trended more and more Democratic and the voters are beginning to vote that way at the Congressional level.  This same type of thing happened to Democrats who tried to reclaim their seats in the South after 1994.

I don't think Fitz would have still lost. Murphy had appeal because he was a vet. He wouldn't have received the money or manpower if he didn't have that appeal. Plus, he only won by a few hundred votes. I think Fitz could have won those people over if he wasn't running against this young guy who served in Iraq.

It was actually about 1700 votes.  I think any decent Democrat(not Schrader) would have beat Fitzpatrick in that district.  The district has changed.

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

Mr. Phips seems to be interested in many House races especially those in PA.
[/quote]

Yes.  I am interested in pretty much any competitive district in the country.

[Mr.Phips]

Murphy by a comfortable margin

When the Iraq issue fades, Murphy has nothing. This is his time in the spotlight. It won't last until 2008.

The Iraq issue will not fade.  The war will not be over by 2008, I can tell you that.  The are also plenty of other issues that strongly favor Murphy in this district.

I'm interested to know how you know so much about my congressional district.

I have years of Almanac's of American politics that I am always going through.  This is a district that liberal John frickin' Kerry won.  I have also studied how Peter Kostermeyer was elected here in the 1970's and 1980's when the district was very Republican(Bush 41 got 61% here and Reagan got 63% in 1984).  He did so by being economically populist and being terrific with constituent services.

Other than that, you have no first hand accounts about the district itself.

Your analysis isn't bad, its not wrong to look at the data that way, but I think you're missing a dynamic that you'd probably see if you had first hand knowledge.

Which is probably pretty fricken difficult from your position, so I can't fault you.

Now the real question one has to ask oneself...did John Kerry win the 8th, or did George W Bush lose the district.

If you answer Kerry, then obviously you'd take those numbers and say the district is just becoming more democratic...which isn't in[edit]correct...but I wouldn't go so far to say that the 8th is inherently a democratic district...at least...yet.

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, if PA-08 is not inherently a Democratic district(it gave Kerry three points more than is national average) then districts that Dems picked up like CA-11, AZ-05, FL-16, NY-19, and NY-20 are not inherently Republican districts because they all gave Bush three more points than his national average as PA-09 gave Kerry three more points than his national average.

That might be true. It depends on the nature of the district. I know PA 8 isn't ingerently a Dem district because while Kerry and other Dems have won there, the GOP still has a good lead in registration.

A lot of these people that are still registered as Republicans here are liberal Lincoln Chafee style Republicans, just like most of the Democrats registered in Oklahoma and Kentucky are very Conservative Democrats.