What State Legislatures will be heavily contested in 2024?

[Mr.Phips]

This is perhaps the biggest question given most Governorships aren't up. Here's my list:

Pennsylvania State House - In a pretty big upset, Ds technically won a majority by 1 seat but for a variety of reasons, it may not rlly function as a majority. I imagine this chamber will be heavily contested with both sides trying to gain the seats for a clear majority. Prolly a tossup for now.

Michigan State House - Ds have a very narrow majority they won by breaking through in several Trump districts. Again, expect it to be heavily contested. Tossup for now.

New Hampshire State House - Rs literally have a 1 seat majority post-2022 and like PA, it's entirely possible Ds somehow end up being the majority caucus. Tossup for now.

Pennsylvania State Senate - Ds flipping the chamber was never a realistic goal this cycle because of the seats that were up, however, they won the seats they needed to be competitive for 2024. Their best path likely runs through holding all their current seats, plus flipping SD-15 (Harrisburg), SD-49 (Erie), and SD-37 (Western Pittsburg). For now, I'd say the GOP is favored cause SD-37 is a Trump district and Ds don't have many options outside these 3 districts.

Minnesota State House - Ds narrowly flipped the chamber this cycle thanks to several suburban gains in Trump-Biden districts. Prolly Lean D for 2022 given they're really only defending Biden territory, but geographic distribution means the median district is to the right of the state by a few points.

Minnesota State Senate. Similar situation to the MN State House but Ds literally control the majority by a single seat. Unlike the State House though, Ds have to defend 2 narrow Trump districts whereas Rs have to defend the outer ring of suburban seats. Prolly a slight Tilt D, but a single seat flipping gives this to the GOP.

Nevada State Senate. Not rlly competitive overall, but Ds will be fighting for the supermajority they need to override Lombardo's veto. They only need to flip 1 seat, likely the Reno based Biden + 16 SD-15. They also have to defend 2 Biden + 9 Las Vegas area seats. I'd say tilt D supermajority, Likely if not Safe D topline.

Nevada State House, same situation expect Ds already have to supermajority which they will be defending. They won the supermajority despite the GOP winning far more votes. They cannot afford to lose any seats though. Tilt D supermajority, and likely if not safe D topline.

Wisconsin State Senate. Simillar situation to NV except it's the GOP who will be fighting to keep their supermajority. Rs can only lose 1 seat, the most vulnerable perhaps being Biden + 1 SD-05 just outside Milwaukee. Ds only have 1 seat that looks potentially vulnerable, Biden + 6 SD-32 based around La Crosse. Tilt Rs keep their supermajority, safe R topline.

Wisconsin State House, where Rs will be fighting to gain back a supermajority so they can override Ever's vetos. Basically requires them to sweep the table, so Lean no supermajority, but Safe R topline.

Arizona. Rs currently control both chambers by a single seat, and Ds came shockingly close to flipping them in 2022 so expect serious investment here. Tossup.

Minnesota state senate won’t be up until 2026.  

Looking at the PA House, there are just three Dems left in Trump 2020 seats and only around four Republicans left in Trump seats, so things should continue to remain quite close in this chamber.

For WI Senate, SD-05 isn't up in 2024.  Basically no seats are likely to be particularly close here this cycle due to redistricting.    

[Mr.Phips]

While I don't think it's going to flip, the Republicans could gain several seats in the New York State Senate if the politica climate here continues to sink for Democrats.

I'd look at SD-4, SD-17, SD-22 (not necessarily for an incumbent losing reelection, but for the possibility of Simcha Felder switching parties), SD-41, SD-46, SD-48, SD-50, SD-52 and SD-61 as possible gains.

If 2024 is a good year for New York Republicans, I'd expect them to pick up 3-5 of those (possibly including a Felder party switch).

SD-04 was Biden + 24.  SD-17 was Biden + 18 and has a very strong Dem incumbent. SD-41 was Biden + 14 and has a very strong incumbent who beat a longtime Republican incumbent in a very bad year for NYS Dems.  SD-46 was Biden + 20 and based in heavily Dem and inelastic Albany county.  SD-48 and SD-52 are both Biden + 20 districts.  SD-61 is a Biden + 25 Buffalo district with a very strong Dem incumbent.  None of these are coming anywhere close to flipping in a Presidential year and likely not even in another good Republican midterm if they couldn’t get them in 2022.

SD-50 I guess is possible if 2024 is another not too good year for Dems given the incumbent won by like 10 votes and it was only Biden + 7.

[Mr.Phips]

While I don't think it's going to flip, the Republicans could gain several seats in the New York State Senate if the politica climate here continues to sink for Democrats.

I'd look at SD-4, SD-17, SD-22 (not necessarily for an incumbent losing reelection, but for the possibility of Simcha Felder switching parties), SD-41, SD-46, SD-48, SD-50, SD-52 and SD-61 as possible gains.

If 2024 is a good year for New York Republicans, I'd expect them to pick up 3-5 of those (possibly including a Felder party switch).

I have to say, one the biggest shocks of 2022 is NY Dems holding the State Senate supermajority despite the brutal headwinds in NY and Rs historical strength in the chamber.

It's hard to understate how lucky NY Dems got. They won the decisive seat by a grand total of 10 votes, and another 5 seats within 3%. They are also lucky to have Fedler who didn't face any serious opposition in his Trump + 40 district.

At the same time, weak Dem turnout on Long Island cost them SD-07 (Biden + 12) and they failed to pick up the Biden + 9 SD-43 and Biden + 10 SD-39, both of which were open seats.

Had Democrats not been asleep at the switch in many parts of the state, they probably would have won a 45-18 majority here this year (not to mention a 20-6 majority in the House delegation).

[Mr.Phips]

While I don't think it's going to flip, the Republicans could gain several seats in the New York State Senate if the politica climate here continues to sink for Democrats.

I'd look at SD-4, SD-17, SD-22 (not necessarily for an incumbent losing reelection, but for the possibility of Simcha Felder switching parties), SD-41, SD-46, SD-48, SD-50, SD-52 and SD-61 as possible gains.

If 2024 is a good year for New York Republicans, I'd expect them to pick up 3-5 of those (possibly including a Felder party switch).

I have to say, one the biggest shocks of 2022 is NY Dems holding the State Senate supermajority despite the brutal headwinds in NY and Rs historical strength in the chamber.

It's hard to understate how lucky NY Dems got. They won the decisive seat by a grand total of 10 votes, and another 5 seats within 3%. They are also lucky to have Fedler who didn't face any serious opposition in his Trump + 40 district.

At the same time, weak Dem turnout on Long Island cost them SD-07 (Biden + 12) and they failed to pick up the Biden + 9 SD-43 and Biden + 10 SD-39, both of which were open seats.

Had Democrats not been asleep at the switch in many parts of the state, they probably would have won a 45-18 majority here this year (not to mention a 20-6 majority in the House delegation).

That is fair; Cervas map generally seems quite favorable to Ds, especially given Rs didn't win a single South Brooklyn State Sen seat. He also avoided "natural" D packs like true Syracuse and Albany seats.

He also could have put Rochester all in one seat, which likely would have limited Dems to just one seat there.

[Mr.Phips]

If Ds win the WI Supreme Court race, we will almost certainly have new state legislative maps.

Still likely won’t be enough for Dems to win control unless it’s a pretty blatant Dem gerrymander.

[Mr.Phips]

If Ds win the WI Supreme Court race, we will almost certainly have new state legislative maps.

Very unlikely, since the map was chosen by WISC. If they do it, it would considered as blatant activism, and maybe enough for the R senate to impeach the Dem justices.

Does this not apply in NC?  Obviously Dems can’t impeach there, but it is the same situation.