https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/
Good article that starts from the following:
Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points.
And examines what would happen with uniform errors of that magnitude in both directions. Summary:
If current poll averages are exactly right: Senate 51R (+1), 49D; House 225R (+12), 210D
Polls underestimate R's by that amount: Senate 54R (+4), 46D; House 259R (+46), 176D
Polls underestimate D's by that amount: Senate 54D (+4), 46R; House 227D (+5), 208R
I think the yardstick for the House in 2014. If Dems fall below 188 there, which they hit in 2014, they need to get rid of their entire leadership.
