When will Democrats next have more than 50 Senate seats?

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

The country may need them to, given how insane Republicans are and previous political history, it could take 3 consecutive defeats for them to moderate.

The thing is that I don’t think Republicans care about the Presidency as long as they have a lock on congress and the courts.

[Mr.Phips]

Hopefully after 2022. Otherwise, not until the 2030s. 2024 of course will likely see several seats lost, but voters are unlikely to switch the presidency back after one term, especially if Biden is running and because Republicans were just such a disaster. If it is a Republican win, the map is so bad that the losses probably take Democrats out of the running for 2026. 2026 would see a few losses, probably not that many. It's hard to tell what change there would be in 2028, my very very early guess is not that much. If Democrats do pull off a third term, then the 2030 class buries Senate Democrats for several years, if not they can't pull off many gains there anyway and given incumbency bias my guess is they're waiting until 2034 anyway. Democrats need to just make the most of this opportunity, and then keep on holding the presidency.

Dems really can’t afford to win the Presidency in 2028.  They would probably end up with Republicans dominating redistricting after the 2031 redistricting and down to less than 40 senate seats after 2028.

The country may need them to, given how insane Republicans are and previous political history, it could take 3 consecutive defeats for them to moderate.

The thing is that I don’t think Republicans care about the Presidency as long as they have a lock on congress and the courts.

1980s Democrats certainly did. The presidency means the other oarty can't push the country in their direction, only obstruct the winner's agenda.

Democrats are different than Republicans.  Republicans are all about obstructing while Democrats actually want to get things done.