2020 Nebraska Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

If Dems couldn’t even come close to winning the legislative chambers in PA and WI in a year as good as 2018, they never will absent a substantial change in the district lines.  PA is a possibility in the next Republican President’s midterm (either 2026 or 2030) due to Dems very likely to get much more favorable lines there due to control of the state Supreme Court.

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

Agreed.  It's Pandora's Box for democracy.  If NE and ME keep splitting their votes regularly, someone will eventually try this in a large, urbanized state with gerrymandered CD lines.

That might finally wake Dems up regarding the importance of winning governorships and state legislatures in key swing states.

They did win key governorships in a number of swing states, though. WI, MI, PA, NC, NV. ME, MN as well. Democrats suffer more at the state level due to the fact that there are more Republican-leaning states than not, and hyper-polarization means there is usually a hard ceiling for many of these states. Democrats seemed to learn a number of lessons in the Trump era, but the fact is, with the country being the way it is right now, they can only do so well in otherwise hostile territory. Money, campaigning and organizing only gets you so far. After a certain point, it doesn't matter how much of either you have/do, it's not going to win you a state legislature if a comfortable majority of the state hates your guts.

Another big factor is that with a highly gerrymandered and/or highly geographically biased map, one side eventually just stops seriously trying to win control until conditions change.  This was certainly the case with Republicans at the US House level during much of 1954-1992 and in Southern state legislatures until the Bush Jr. era.  You can see similar things today with Democrats just giving up on winning state legislative chambers in states where they often win the governorship and presidential elections (WI,MI,PA, etc.).  Had they failed to flip the US House in 2018, it might have even happened at that level.

If Dems couldn’t even come close to winning the legislative chambers in PA and WI in a year as good as 2018, they never will absent a substantial change in the district lines.  PA is a possibility in the next Republican President’s midterm (either 2026 or 2030) due to Dems very likely to get much more favorable lines there due to control of the state Supreme Court.

Pretty sure Biden won either 24 or 25 state senate districts.

25, but one was by the barest of margins (Pittsburgh suburbs) in an ancestrally heavily Republican district that would likely not vote Dem at the state legislative level in a normal turnout election.  Another (the Erie seat) has a very strong Republican incumbent who is basically impossible to beat.

[Mr.Phips]

Both NE and ME should get rid of the split electoral votes, it's bad politics and will tear this country apart if other states try it.

I don't get this. What's so bad about the Maine and Nebraska method? We're already atrociously divided as it is, but why would adopting that method in more states make it worse? The way I see it, adopting that method increases the likelihood that presidential candidates, in the fall election, will campaign in more states. Nebraska would likely never be visited at all by Democrat nominees if the state didn't use the congressional district method. If California were to adopt the district method, then Republican nominees would have a good reason to spend a lot of time campaigning there, instead of writing the whole state off. What arguments outweigh that consideration?

Republicans could implement it in rapidly D trending states like Georgia and Texas, creating a situation where a Democrat could win the state but get a minority of electoral votes from it due to gerrymandering, further biasing the electoral college against Democrats. Democrats wouldn't be able to repeal it until they got a trifecta.

If Republicans somehow get a trifecta in Minnesota in 2022, they would be idiots to not pass this there.  It’s basically impossible for them to win a Presidential race in that state.