2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Minnesota

[Mr.Phips]

How would one draw a least change map that results in the following:
*MN-02 becomes a few points friendlier for Dems (Biden +7 --> Biden +11ish)
*MN-01 becomes a few points friendlier for Dems (Trump +10 --> Trump +5ish)
*MN-03, MN-04, and MN-05 remain safe for Dems

Presumably MN-06, MN-07, and MN-08 take in even more GOP turf but what would the mechanics be here? Presumably MN-02 takes in some of the Southern part of MN-04, MN-05, or MN-03 (wherever the most Dem friendly votes are), and then MN-01 sheds some conservative turf to MN-07, but where do its Dem votes come from? Would love to see this mapped if anyone knows how.

PS - my interest in this is because this is what I would consider a "fair" / partisan proportional map for Minnesota. It's essentially 4-4, but since this is a Dem state, there's a Dem advantage in the sense that all four Dem seats are safe but one of the four GOP seats is competitive.

I’ll try making a clean 4-1-3 map later. I think another option could be to have MN-2 take in Rochester alongside most if not all of Dakota County, while MN-6 gets pulled more in to Minneapolis and becomes a swingy suburban district that narrowly went to Trump, being mostly Anoka and Washington. This might screw up some COIs though.

However making a swingy MN-1 usually involves MN-7 shifting south leading to a weird situation with MN-8. MN geography is honestly really annoying because it seems like no matter what, 1 district is going to be “leftovers”

Also, MN geography is slightly unfavorable to Ds so a “fair map” from a partisanship standpoint is something one has to go out of their way to make; 4-4 map on 2020 numbers is kinda like the “default”

I think Dems would be OK with a 4-4 map as long as Craig is made much safer.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems win the legislature in '22, any chance they do a mid-decade redistricting?

I don’t know if the state constitution allows it.  In most states it doesn’t.

[Mr.Phips]

2020 presidential results for my map. My custom MN-05 doesn't have any municipality splits and is entirely in Hennepin County. No more three-way split of Anoka County. My MN-07 and MN-08 have no county splits. My MN-07 breaks tradition and doesn't contain any of the northernmost counties in western Minnesota, which I did to make it more compact. My MN-08 take in all the northernmost counties.

What are the MN-02 2020 presidential numbers?

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats need to demand a 5-3 map or a  4-2-2 at worst. There's no a reason a +8 biden state should have a split delegation.

I think the best the can home for is a map that shores up Craig to give them four basically safe seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Below is the cleanest least change map. MN-02 has a PVI of 0, and Biden won it by 5 points - almost identical to the existing CD. The Dem map is in LOL territory. The Courts are not going there, but I would not be surprised if they don't just stamp the Torie map and call it a day. If the Dems want to try to pick the partisan pocket in MN, they need to show more skill than they what they just published. What they did is amateur hour.

I really don't think they are going to make Craig's redder

No especially given that the court is dominated by Dem appointees.

[Mr.Phips]

State legislative maps had some changes. Dems got a fairly good deal from Rochester finally getting that safe seat but the 2nd seat is still very competitive albiet a few points more R.  Iron Range looks somewhat weird and R friendly, Trump wins every senate seat there outside of Duluth.

How many Duluth districts are there?  Just one?

[Mr.Phips]

Dems should go ahead and pass independent redistricting here while they have a rare trifecta.  Don’t wanna risk Republicans getting a trifecta after 2030 in time for redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

Regarding mid-decade redistricting, be careful what you wish for, as MN voters have a history of not liking sleazy stuff. The DFL did something seedy before 1978, with governor Anderson resigning so that he could be appointed senator by the new governor Perpich, his lieutenant governor. Both Perpich and Anderson lost the next election in 1978 by big margins, and MN had Republicans for governor and both senators for the first time of the modern era.

Yeah, of all states, Minnesota is a bad fit for these tactics. Minnesotans take good government seriously! And that's especially true in the case when the DFL can clearly win fair and square.

Wasn’t Wisconsin similar in this way?  Republicans paid no price there for their brutal gerrymander of the state legislature.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1766176029037515115

This is proposed in the State House and interestingly all 20 sponsors are Democrats.   It list proportionality directly in the language (section 7.25) -

[7.25] Districts must not be drawn with the effect of unduly favoring or disfavoring any political
party. Districts shall be subjected to a test of partisan fairness using the standard of
proportionality as the benchmark for fairness.

It also doesn't seem to list anything regarding compactness either.   I'd kinda be okay with this passing really.

Yeah it’s not like Dems have actually ever had a trifecta in a redistricting year here and there is also a non zero chance that Republicans could have a trifecta here in 2031.  Dems should also be pushing for independent redistricting in PA for these exact same reasons.