2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Mr.Phips]

It appears that it is more likely that Fletcher (and maybe even Allred?) are going to get screwed in redistricting as they really want Wesley Hunt to run for Congress. I wouldn't be surprised to see if the GOP proposes a 27 R - 11 D map in the coming weeks.

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/23/texas-congress-redistricting-fletcher/

They probably can’t draw Allred and shore up TX-24 without a dummymander in 2024. They also likely need to make one of the new seats an Austin vote sink.  27-12 is very likely the most they can get away with (making up for the Austin sink by making TX-34 a mid to high single digit Trump seat and going after Fletcher).  However going after Fletcher and also shoring up TX-02 and TX-22 has dummymander potential in 2024.

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

Oh what could have been….

[Mr.Phips]

Interesting fact:

Under the new state House maps passed by the GOP, Trump only won the majority of seats 79-71. And at that, most Biden seats should be relatively safe and there's very few actual marginal Dem seats (most are in the RGV so if that slips for the Dems it'll cost them). After that, the remainder should stick with them for the decade barring a major suburban reversion of the GOP becoming competitive in downtowns of big cities.

Dems on the other hand have tons of potential marginal pickup opportunities later in the decade, especially in these growing and diversifying suburbs.

I would almost be surprised at this point if Dems don't flip the TX State House at some point this decade

Had Trump won reelection, I think Democrats probably would have won the State House and at least one statewide race in 2022.

Oh what could have been….

Sure. But I shudder to think about how unhinged Trump would have been in a second term.

If Dems held the House in 2020, the damage would have been mitigated.  Now there is a decent chance that he (or another Republican in 2028) comes back even more powerful than he was from 2017-2020.