2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Mr.Phips]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Consider this: RCP pegs the GCB at D+6.8 right now. There's a whole twelve Republican held districts that Trump either lost or won by less than 6.8:

NC-02 (redistricted)
NC-06 (redistricted)
NY-24
TX-23
PA-01
FL-25 (doesn't really fit the bill because of downballot Cubans sadly)
NE-02
NJ-02 (HARDLY a safe district for the GOP)
IL-13
TX-24
GA-07
OH-01

Meanwhile, there's only eight Democratic held districts that Trump won by more than 6.8:

MN-07 (🅱️eterson)
NY-22
OK-05
SC-01
ME-02
NM-02
NY-11
PA-08 (🅱️artwright)

Not to mention a few more districts that fall outside of those bounds on both sides but are still very winnable: TX-22, PA-10, NY-02, TX-31, TX-10, TX-21, and the weird three way race in MI-03 for the Dems, UT-04, NY-19, NJ-03, IA-01, IL-14, IA-03, IA-02, MI-08, VA-02, and VA-07 for the GOP, etc.

Dems left a lot on the table in 2018, and to act like they don't have room to grow in 2020 would be foolish. In fact, here's your hot take of the day: Dems are going to net seats. You heard it here first, folks.

I do think it's plausible that the Dems actually do pick up seats, mostly because their freshman class seems strong and because they have more guaranteed pickups than Republicans do (the two NC districts and TX-23 seem like definite pickups at this point).

I think a Dem net pickup would require something more dramatic than just those seats.  Cartwright, Peterson, Brindisi, the open IA-02, etc. are going to flip unless the presidential election is a Dem blowout.  A Dem net gain would require something like every Republican-held seat involved in the Austin gerrymander flipping. 

Cartwright?  Biden probably carries that district if he is the nominee.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1275964432372424704

The suburban whiplash is real.

I think 2022 could be a bloodbath for Democrats in Jersey. They're pretty much maxed out, none of NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07 and NJ-11 are THAT blue, the fundraising source will likely dry up without Trump in office, and swing district members are almost always the first to go down.

A lot of these districts (except for one) will likely get more incumbent friendly in redistricting.  NJ-03 will likely exchange Ocean county for Trenton and NJ-05 will likely shed its rural areas to NJ-11 or NJ-07 (making one of those districts a safe Republican pickup). The Dem areas of NJ-11 and NJ-07 would then be combined into one district.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1277950774652424193

I’m not sure how much Dems want to invest in this race if Republicans are just gonna cut this district up in two years (much like OK-05 and GA-07).

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1283590499786526720

Dunno if it's actually true, but just lol. How you guys manage to get along with parties so goddamn stupid is beyond me.

It’s real. Nancy Pelosi should just get all the liberal black women in the House from safe seats to go on Fox News every night and just start trolling and get the Fox hosts amped. Their challengers would raise so much money from the racist viewers in lost cause seats lol

Omar did this too but now it's also costing Democrats a few million on a primary battle.

Why would this cost Democrats anything?

[Mr.Phips]

UT-04 partisan poll

https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/7/16/21327383/ben-mcadams-financial-disclosure-burgess-owens-4th-district-race

Moore Information/Republican Congressional Leadership Fund
July 8-11, 2020
400 likely voters
MoE: 5%

Burgess Owens, R 43%
Ben McAdams, D 34%
John Molnar, L 5%
Jonia Broderick, UUP <0.5%
Don’t know 15%

I find this very hard to believe given the Presidential numbers we have been seeing out of Utah.

[Mr.Phips]

VA-02 Tarrance Group/CLF Poll (R):

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/VA-02-July-Survey-Results6.pdf

Elaine Luria (D-inc) 48%
Scott Taylor (R) 48%

Given the Presidential numbers in Virginia, I highly doubt this. 

[Mr.Phips]

IA-03
Tarrance Group
July 7-9
400 LV

Young 44%
Axne 43%
Holder 6%
Undecided 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000173-6f68-d3de-ab7b-7f79a08f0000

Lol Trump at 58% approval on economy.

[Mr.Phips]

I just saw that Harley Rouda (CA-48) challenged Michelle Steel to 8 debates, and she hasn’t responded. I wonder if he benefited more than most CA Dems from the quality of the incumbent he was challenging and this seat snaps back.

I also saw this. the usual rule is that if you call for a superfluous number of debates, you are concerned about your internals - either down or consistently tied. 

I feel like if Rouda was behind or tied, we would have seen a poll from Republicans by now.

[Mr.Phips]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

Still something to potentially be concerned about for Dems.  I mean, after 2016, you can’t safely assume that one candidate won’t win the Presidential race.  

[Mr.Phips]

OH-01
GQR/Schroder internal
June 29-July 2
605 LV
MoE: 4.0%

Chabot 48%
Schroder 46%
Undecided 6%

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/508362-internal-poll-shows-tight-race-brewing-in-key-ohio-house-race

I’d be shocked if Chabot actually lost.  Despite being very conservative, he kept winning in a Dem leaning district from 1994-2008, only losing in 2008 due to high black turnout due to Obama (he still overperformed McCain by about four points).  Having Warren county gerrymandered into the district makes it even tougher for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

NJ-03
CLF / R internal

Andy Kim (D) 45%
David Richter (R) 42%

Tragic for an R internal

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/gop-polls-hows-dead-heat-in-nj-3-race-between-kim-richter/

If Kim can get through 2020, he will likely be around for a while as redistricting probably takes most of Republican heavy Ocean county out of the district and exchanges it for a chunk of Mercer county (Trenton).

[Mr.Phips]

Morning Consult
July 17-19
1991 RV
MoE: 2%

Democratic 47%
Republican 37%
Undecided 16%

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2020/07/22072029/200766_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v2.pdf

So much for all those chicken littles who were worried that people will vote Republican downballot to put a check on president Biden.

I mean, hopefully that won’t happen like in 2016, but it’s a little soon to rule it out. Republicans really only starting using that strategy in October.

Democrats can’t keep letting Republicans pull this every four years like groundhog’s day. Republicans are perfectly fine with it when they have the trifecta themselves.  According to them, it’s only bad when Democrats have a “blank check”?

[Mr.Phips]

SC-02? W H A T

Adair Boroughs has raised significant money and outraised Wilson.

The district voted about the same as KS-02 and KY-06 - Trump got 56% of the vote here in 2016, so its hovering around the 55% mark where Dems managed to be competitive in 2018. A competitive race with a well-funded challenger isn't too far-fetched.

Both KY-06 and KS-02 are more elastic than SC-02, which is dominated by inflexibly Republican Lexington county.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1287754515928711168

The fact that Gimenez has higher name recognition than Powell leads me to believe that Powell has more room to grow.  Gimenez will not survive a 20 point loss by Trump in this district.

[Mr.Phips]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run.  

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15 district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

All DMP needs to do is make sure that a vote for Biden is a vote for her.  She should add Biden’s name to all of her signage and literature.  Basically run as part of his team.

[Mr.Phips]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

When Rubio was winning statewide by 8 points in a good Republican year.

[Mr.Phips]

Cook rating shifts:

FL26 Lean D to Toss-Up
AR02 Safe R to Likely R
OH10 Safe R to Likely R
AKAL Likely R to Lean R
NY02 Lean R to Toss-Up
GA06 Toss-Up to Lean D

It actually astounds me how bad these people are at their jobs. It would be a stretch to call FL-26 vulnerable in a neutral enviroment, never mind a Tossup in a D+10 one. These pundits are jokes.

Eh, FL-26 is definitely worrying. Cubans are actually swinging very heavily R these days.

What's going on there? Wealthy people moving in? /s

I'd argue the main reason that FL-26 is only Tilt D is that the Republicans landed their strongest possible recruit.  Carlos Giménez is a strong candidate the way that Steve Bullock is in that he really is able to turn a race that wouldn't have been competitive otherwise into an absolute dog fight.  It was just bad luck that he decided to run. 

I don't see how he's got any chance of winning a Clinton +15district in a D+10 environment. Bullock would be DOA in an R+10 environment. Of course, I accept that if any party could lose such a district it would be the Democratic party. I suspect the very obvious strategy of running a million ads with Giménez shown next to Trump probably hasn't even occurred to them and they're running ads touting DMP's moderate credentials or something lol

This is also a Rubio +1 district.

And if Trump wins Florida by 8 points then this district may well vote R. Something tells me that isn't going to happen though.

*sighs*

In 2016 (a D+2 year), Clinton won Latinos 66-28. Latinos trended D+36.
In 2018 (a D+9 year), Democratic House candidates won Latinos 69-29. Latinos trended D+31.

Do you think Latinos became 5 points more Republican?

Do you realize this is a majority-Hispanic district?

Do you realize most “trends” are caused by white voters?

Do you realize Senator Rubio’s statewide performance had little to do with his performance in Florida’s 26th congressional district?

If Rubio only tied statewide, I guarantee you that he would have lost this district.

[Mr.Phips]

It seems like more of an outlier. A lot of people may be afraid that a check on Biden could end up as unchecked power for Trump.

Which is what Dems need be reminding people.  That’s exactly what happened in 2016.

[Mr.Phips]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority.  

Anyway, I think Dems would do well to pick up 10 seats. We are just much more polarized than we were in 2008.

[Mr.Phips]

House Dems could realistically pick up 20+ seats this election. These internals are wild.

You're not kidding. Some of the indications show upwards of 25+. I'd be surprised if Democrats can reclaim what they had after Obama's first election, but it's getting close. It could potentially be a wave-proof majority. We'll have to see.

No such thing as a wave proof majority. 

Very true, but it was sort of in context of a recent topic. No, not wave proof, but a Democratic House approaching 260 is a far stronger majority than something closer to the mid-230s. It could potentially withstand 2022.

Having close to 260 just means more vulnerable seats to have to protect.

[Mr.Phips]

Generic ballot - Monmouth

LV
Democrat 49%
Republican 45%

RV
Democrat 49%
Republican 43%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_091020.pdf/

This is terrifying.

A +3/+4 lead is right around where the House flips. Not even kidding, this is getting way less attention than it needs to get. Before the summer the Democrats often did better in the generic ballot than Biden did in the presidential, now it seems to be the opposite in most polls. I would still bet on the House remaining Democratic of course but these kinds of margins suggest the Democrats will definitely net lose seats, not gain seats like I've seen so many times on this forum. It also suggests some of these Dem internals for CDs are completely out of line with reality, as I've pointed out recently (and people have gotten upset and tried to defend the polling which suggests 10-20 point Dem trends in multiple Republican leaning districts)

Lol the House ain’t flipping if Biden wins.

[Mr.Phips]

Generic ballot - USC/Dornsife

Democrat 50.7% (nc)
Republican 44.9% (+0.3)

https://election.usc.edu/

Given the intense polarization and the ensuing party-line voting we've had up to now, it's hard to believe this of all elections would have that level of ticket splitting.

The national House vote will likely end up the same margin as the Presidential popular vote.

[Mr.Phips]

So there's a scenario where Biden loses they way Hillary does but Pelosi still holds the house.

I think it’d be likely.  Trump would probably need to win the popular vote for Republicans to take the House.

[Mr.Phips]

Cook Political made the following House rating changes today:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310921940295733251

NY-19 is probably the single biggest recruitment disaster this cycle. Also lol @ PA-17.

NY-22 is arguably the biggest one. Republicans ran the one lady who Brindisi is slightly favored against. Almost anyone else would have been more likely than not to flip it. ME-02, PA-08, and MI-08 were also pretty bad in terms of recruiting for seats that should have been easy flips on paper.

PA-01 and NE-02 are the Democrats' biggest flubs since it looks like Biden will easily win those seats, but Finello and Eastman have excellent chances of being dragged across by coattails anyways.

Tenney is pretty bad, but it's hard to overstate how bad the fundamentals are for Brindisi (it's the second most Republican Democratic-held district by 2016 margin after MN-07). Not to mention it was still a close race in 2018. Maybe I'm underestimating Brindisi and how Democratic the national environment truly is, but I think Tenney can still win just by the lean of the district. It should be close, though.

Obama did basically tie in this district in 2008 and 2012.  It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden was doing a lot better than Hillary’s near 20 point loss here.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/kirk_bado/status/1313440078350495745

Since when is Tarantino a Republican?