JALA's horrifyingly blatant GA Gerrymander

[Mr.Phips]

Lol, you're still going by numbers from the 2008 election for a 2021 redistricting?  Do you realize how much the Atlanta suburbs have grown and changed since then? 

[Mr.Phips]

I don't see how your GA-14 (replacing the current GA-02) is conforming with the VRA.

RL GA-02 is not required by the VRA (and it certainly won't be in 2021 given the population loss down there); it was drawn in 2011 to be a Democratic vote-sink to prevent potentially 2 Jim Marshalls et al to slip through in 2 South GA districts. My, how things have changed since then!

It is required under VRA, its 52% black. 

[Mr.Phips]

GA-02 is a majority African American district.

It is required under VRA, its 52% black.  

It was actually 49.5% VAP as drawn in 2011, and I promise you, it is not required under VRA. There was a lot of talk about it being such during reapportionment, but the final outcome was purposefully designed to skid the implicit requirements wrt Gingles. The GOP billed it as being a majority-black district in the run-up to the final version of the map (so they could talk about expanding black districts), but they ultimately drew it in such a way as to maximize its vote-sink potential without permanently guaranteeing its protection.

Additionally - and perhaps in conflict with what my GOP friends under the Gold Dome at the time told me - if a Gingles-complaint majority-black CD were possible here, then the Justice Department would have likely forced the legislature to redo this district during preclearance and make it majority-black VAP: they did not.

Even if it were majority-black CVAP (and despite the VAP number, it might actually be depending on the Latino CVAP percentage), that alone is not a guarantee for protection under VRA (nor is a plurality-black CVAP district automatically disqualified from VRA protections simply because it is not a majority-black district). It is no more required than a Savannah-Augusta-Macon 49% black VAP district that is entirely possible (though not via DRA necessarily).

There's a reason virtually every heavily-black SW GA county has swung immensely to the GOP since the maps were drawn: they're hemorrhaging black population. Among the three most populated/urban centers, 2 of them (Dougherty & Bibb) have lost population since 2010, and Muscogee has grown by a mere 2%. If this district isn't protected under the Voting Rights Act now (and it's not), then it won't be come 2020.

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

[Mr.Phips]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

[Mr.Phips]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

Yeah coz voters care so much about gerrymandering that it effects their votes?
I mean they might say muh gerrymandering is bad but then anyone can just point to MDs 3rd or even Il 4th(ik its not a partisan gerrymander)

I think the African American voters (and state legislators) who have had one of their own representing them for the last 30 years would certainly care.  In that case, I would suggest that they refuse to show up for the vote on the map to deny Republicans a quarum until they agree to restore the district.

[Mr.Phips]

It's probably more than 49.5% black now.

It might be, given the 3 urban clusters have become slightly blacker while losing population; however, most everywhere else in the district is becoming whiter or remaining the same while losing tons of population.

This'll require the district to cover more geographic territory as it is and will likely further weaken the "compact racial, ethnic, or language minority community" threshold for VRA status.


I also believe one of our expert redistricting fellows here (muon or jimrtex) mentioned some time ago that they too believed the district to not be VRA-required.

I'd like to see what happens if the legislature and governor try to take away the representation for African American voters in Southwest Georgia.  The optics alone of it are something to consider.

Yeah coz voters care so much about gerrymandering that it effects their votes?
I mean they might say muh gerrymandering is bad but then anyone can just point to MDs 3rd or even Il 4th(ik its not a partisan gerrymander)

I think the African American voters (and state legislators) who have had one of their own representing them for the last 30 years would certainly care.  In that case, I would suggest that they refuse to show up for the vote on the map to deny Republicans a quarum until they agree to restore the district.

Whats quorom in GA?

It may just be a simple majority, so that may not work.