Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Mr.Phips]

We talked a while back if the D could hold the House in 2020.

If the 11 seat majority is accurate, it becomes very possible.  

There would need to 24 abstentions of Democrats for Pelosi to lose the speakership, which is unlikely.

What might be likely is something along the lines is something along the lines of a Blue Dog/New Democrat Coalition group that might hold the balance of power.  This would only require 11-20 vote shift.    

Unless something changes, I feel good about our chances to take back the House in 2020 as long as Trump/the Republican nominee isn't getting blown out.  Democrats got several fluky wins tonight (SC-1, OK-5, NY-11) and I don't think they will stay this strong in Southern suburbs (GA-6, TX-7, TX-32) forever.

Republicans aren't taking back the House if Trump loses.  They need him to win to take back the House.  I may agree with you on SC-01, but most of the seats Dems picked up are ones that are only getting more diverse (i.e. Dem) unlike 2006/2008 where Dems picked up a bunch of rural blue dog seats.

[Mr.Phips]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

[Mr.Phips]

Beto O'Rourke and Stacey Abrams got more votes than Hillary Clinton did in 2016 in those states. That's insane.

I didn't think Democrats winning Texas in a Presidential election could happen before 2024 at the absolute earliest (and was always really bearish on Clinton's chances in Texas, e.g., and on O'Rourke), but based on these results, with Presidential-year Latino turnout and two more years of demographic change, I'd be sweating as a Republican that the Democrats could win Texas in 2020.

I'm going to be #bold and say that Texas, Georgia, and Arizona are more winnable for Dems than Iowa, Ohio and Florida (?) at this point.

You may not be too far off base here.  I don't think Florida and Ohio are winnable anymore for Dems.

FL is still a Presidential swing state, the Dems just can’t turn anyone out in midterms.

The only time Dems have actually "won" in a Presidential year in Florida since 1996 was when Obama was on the ballot.

[Mr.Phips]

So, because the New York Times is so desperately behind in reporting results, approximately how many seats did the Democrats pick up in the house last night?

Somewhere in the 33-35 range based on what's outstanding.

[Mr.Phips]

Its possible all the Ds pull it out through the last ballots, though Gil and Porter arent looking so well. I guess, we just have to wait and see....

Gil has a far better chance than Porter given the margins (2k v 6k)

[Mr.Phips]

If this were a midterm with Hillary Clinton in the White House, could John James have pulled it out in Michigan?

Republicans would have historic numbers in the House and Senate.  It’d be a bloodbath of a midterm.

Meh I think the senate would be brutal but the house would probably be like back to 2014 and maybe 2or 3 seats lower. Reps didn't have many more targets.

Yeah, after 2014, there really were very few seats Democratic held House seats left that Republicans had a realistic chance of taking.

[Mr.Phips]

Goodbye!!!

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/hellofasandwich/status/1062466360628850688

How much is left to count in Utah county?

[Mr.Phips]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? 

[Mr.Phips]

Starting to think Nate McMurray may win NY-27. He's winning absentees OUTSIDE OF ERIE AND NIAGARA with 60%, which is more than what he needs to close that margin. I especially think Erie and Niagara are friendlier.

So we’d have two 2 year rental seats then if he wins?

What is the other one that we are 100% sure about? 

Probably NM-02. Judging from History, Pearce probably runs again and wins his his seat back.

In a Presidential year, I'd think Dems have a decent chance at holding that district.  However in a midterm of Dem President, not so much. 

NC-09 and NY-27 would have been almost certain two year rentals.