Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018? (user search)
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  Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: What are the chances Dems take control of the house in 2018?
#1
10%
 
#2
25%
 
#3
40%
 
#4
50%
 
#5
60%
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 117

Author Topic: Poll: Chances Dems win control of the House in 2018?  (Read 8232 times)
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,548


« on: February 03, 2017, 12:01:11 PM »

The Democrats tend to not do well in midterm elections in the House, period. Their 3rd best midterm since 1974 was only a gain of 7. 1982's +26 and 2006's +30 really pale in comparison to 1994's +54 and 2010's +63.

They do pale in comparison, but in 2010 Democrats were significantly overextended. Same for 1994, although that was the dawn of a new playing field. The GOP getting those large blowouts doesn't mean all that much. They have an advantage in the House that has increased somewhat over the past 6 years, that's it.

Dems were also overextended in 1986 and 1990, leading to few gains.

Yes, having such a big majority already in those years meant that there were not a lot of Republicans left in winnable seats for Democrats.  In 1990, Democrats actually held a substantial number of seats that Bush had not only won in 1988, but got over 60% of the vote in.  There even were a few like FL-01 (Earl Hutto), FL-09(Bill Nelson), GA-09(Bill Jenkins), GA-07(Buddy Garden) that Bush got over 70%(!!!!!) In.
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