Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems (user search)
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  Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems (search mode)
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Author Topic: Nightmare Senate Scenario for Dems  (Read 5792 times)
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,548


« on: December 07, 2014, 05:06:50 PM »

If Hillary is winning I don't see Dems losing Nevada unless Sandoval runs.  I think at minimum dems pick up Illinois and Wisconsin and probably PA with Hillary winning.  The days where one party can lose the White House, but do well in the Congressional races(like in 1956, 1972, 1988 and 1996) are probably well past due to increased polarization.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,548


« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2014, 05:20:48 PM »

Frighteningly plausible. Hell, Toomey and Johnson could pull it out.

I'd like to see what a Johnson/Hillary Clinton voter looks like.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,548


« Reply #2 on: December 07, 2014, 07:39:47 PM »

2018 with Hillary will be ugly, but I don't see any way there wouldn't be a net gain for the Democrats in 2016.

Not that difficult -- NV is a 50/50 proposition at best, and CO is definitely vulnerable. None of the Republican seats look like they will be gimmes, like MT/WV were this year. Democrats are definitely heavily favored to take seats in 2016, but it's the way Republicans were heavily favored to gain seats in 2012 -- the chance of it not occurring exists.

And under a Republican Presidency, 2018 could be a net loss of seats too. Only MO looks like a really certain GOP pickup, and in a good Democratic year it's plausible y'all could gain AZ and NV and hold your vulnerable Northern seats.

Bennet ain't losing if Hillary is winning the state.
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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,548


« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2014, 08:34:25 PM »

Frighteningly plausible. Hell, Toomey and Johnson could pull it out.

I'd like to see what a Johnson/Hillary Clinton voter looks like.

Maybe similar to a Gore/Santorum voter in 2000?

Santorum was a populist and friendly with the unions.
Johnson is a hardcore tea-partier that has nothing to show during his first 4 years as a senator other that partisan attacks and gridlock.

Yeah.  He hasn't even tried to be constructive on anything.
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