NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[Mr.Phips]

My predictions:

Christine Quinn vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
John Liu vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill Thompson vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D

Christine Quinn vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
John Liu vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D/Likely D
Bill Thompson vs. Joseph Lhota: Likely D

Christine Quinn vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt D
Bill de Blasio vs. Ray Kelly: Pure Toss-up
John Liu vs. Ray Kelly: Lean R
Bill Thompson vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt R

I dont think any race would be Tilt-R or more unless Bloomberg or Giuliani were the nominee or possibly against John Liu.  This is a city that went 81% for Barack Obama, making it around D+30.

[Mr.Phips]

Black voters just don't seem very interested in Thompson, and De Blasio's used his family so aggressively that I doubt Thompson will make up much more ground.

I'm thinking a De Blasio/Quinn run-off, followed by a very competitive Lhota/De Blasio general election. Lhota will pick up a LOT of Quinn supporters.

No Republican who isn't either Rudy Giuliani or Mike Bloomberg is going to get more than 40% in citywide in NYC.