About a 75% chance of the GOP gaining seats in the House in 2014 and maybe a 5% chance of the Dems regaining control of the House in 2014. The last few election cycles have shown a bit of a disconnect on the usual mid-term trends, probably because of the overall decoupling of House and Presidential results. 2014 won't be merely the sixth year of Obama, it'll be the fourth year of a Republican-led House.
In the Senate, Landrieu (D-LA) and Pryor (D-AR) will vulnerable no matter what. Baucus (D-MT), Begich (D-AK), Frankin (DFL-MN), Hagan (D-NC), Johnson (D-SD), Shaheen (D-NH), M. Udall (D-CO), and Warner (D-VA) depend largely on how the economy is doing. Collins (RINO-ME) would be replaced by Democrat if she doesn't run again. Graham (R-SC) might get TP'd and then have the Democrats win, since I seriously doubt a non-kooky person would get into a primary fight with Graham. (Altho that's probably why he's in such a boil over Rice right now so as to avoid a serious primary challenge.) If Rockefeller (D-WV) retires, his seat is a likely GOP pickup, but if he runs, he should be able to keep it. Anyway, I expect the GOP to gain anywhere from 1 to 9 seats in the Senate in 2014, with 3 as the most likely number, which isn't enough to take the Senate.
There really arent many seats Republicans can gain in the House at this point. Most of the weakest Democrats were knocked off in 2010 and the few seats Democrats picked up in 2012 are pretty favorable to them.
I will say that the SECOND midterm election is predictive of who will win the White House two years later, unlike the first.
For example, Democrats had a good 2006 midterm and that predicted them winning back the White House in 2008.
Democrats had a decent 2000 midterm and that predicted them holding the White House(absent the Florida debacle).
In 1986, Republicans had a pretty good midterm outside of Senate races and they kept the WHite House in 1988.
This goes back to the early 1900s.
