Romney/Democrat and Obama/Republican congressional districts

[Mr.Phips]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12


Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07



Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)



Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

[Mr.Phips]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12

Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07

Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)

Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

FL-13 has leaned D for the last few cycles Presidentially. It's a deadly trap that lures promising politicians into attempting to challenge Bill Young; they are subsequently slaughtered.

Democrats just need him to retire and then they would have at least a 50/50 shot at picking up that seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12

Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07

Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)

Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

FL-13 has leaned D for the last few cycles Presidentially. It's a deadly trap that lures promising politicians into attempting to challenge Bill Young; they are subsequently slaughtered.

Democrats just need to wait until Young(blonde Wayne Newton) retires and then they would probably have a 50/50 shot at picking up that seat. 

[Mr.Phips]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12

Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07

Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)

Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

FL-13 has leaned D for the last few cycles Presidentially. It's a deadly trap that lures promising politicians into attempting to challenge Bill Young; they are subsequently slaughtered.

Democrats just need to wait until Young(blonde Wayne Newton) retires and then they would probably have a 50/50 shot at picking up that seat. 

Doubtful; not with Latvala, Brandes, and Baker still around.

That's what Democrats said about TN-08.  "Oh we've got hugely popular State Senator Roy Herron who holds a state Senate district in the most Republican part of the district, we'll easily hold that one".  He lost by 20 points to a gospel singer. 

[Mr.Phips]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12

Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07

Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)

Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

FL-13 has leaned D for the last few cycles Presidentially. It's a deadly trap that lures promising politicians into attempting to challenge Bill Young; they are subsequently slaughtered.

Democrats just need to wait until Young(blonde Wayne Newton) retires and then they would probably have a 50/50 shot at picking up that seat. 

Doubtful; not with Latvala, Brandes, and Baker still around.

That's what Democrats said about TN-08.  "Oh we've got hugely popular State Senator Roy Herron who holds a state Senate district in the most Republican part of the district, we'll easily hold that one".  He lost by 20 points to a gospel singer. 

completely different circumstance. Young's district at worst is like D+2. The Tanner district was more like R+10. Plus, Herron ran in a wave year. He probably would have won in 06 or 08 when they were still loyal dem downballot.

The 2008 Presidential result simply reflected how much the district hated Obama, not other Democrats.  I would have imagined that Hillary Clinton probably would have carried the district or come close if she was the nominee in 2008.  The district actually had an even PVI in 2004 and was around D+3 in 2000.

[Mr.Phips]

Romney/Democrat Confirmed:

UT-04
NC-07
WV-03
GA-12


Romney/Democrat Plausible:

TX-23
AZ-1
AZ-2
AZ-9
FL-18
MN-07



Obama/Republican Confirmed:

CA-31 (fluke)
NJ-02
NJ-03 (Burlington County section went for Obama by about 35k, Ocean County section for Romney by at most 25k)
IA-03 (52% Obama)



Obama/Republican Plausible:

PA-08 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
IL-13
MN-02
MN-03
FL-27 (lots of swing here)
MI-06 (though I think Romney snagged this by a hair)
NV-03
NY-19

FL-18 probably went for Obama by a hair.  Im pretty sure NY-11 switched to Obama/Republican, as Obama actually carried the Staten Island part of the district(he lost it in 2008).  I think NJ-05 also switched to Obama/Republican.  MI-07 may also be Obama/Republican.  Walberg wildly underperformed against a nobody again.  I think TX-23 went to Obama again by a hair.  Obama did about the same as he did in 2008 in this area.  FL-13(Bill Young) is also a likely Obama/Republican district.  VA-02 is possible to as an Obama/Republican district.  

WI-07 was also probably an Obama/Republican seat.

It actually looks like Obama still might have carried a narrow majority of the nations Congressional districts, even as he only won the popular vote by two points.  Wouldnt have expected this.  

Added. VA-02 looks quite plausible (Romney won Virginia Beach slightly, but its 4k votes either way). I don't think WI-07 is below 51% Romney unless you have actual numbers.

Yep, just figured out WI-07, it was 51%-48% Romney.  Under the old lines, it would have been about 51%-48% Obama.  

VA-02 should be a real Dem target in the future.  Perhaps Glenn Nye would give it another go?  

PA-08 went for Obama 50%-49% or 1,183 votes.  Democrats desperately need a better candiate here.  Maybe Patrick Murphy will be back.  

PA-06 goes 52%-47% Romney.  Interesting that Romney did about as well as Bush here.  

PA-07 is very close.  50%-49% Romney and by about 5,000 votes.   That little, overwhelmingly section of Lancaster provides 90% of his margin.  

PA-15 goes 51%-48% Romney.  

MI-06 goes 50%-49% for Romney.  

MI-07 goes 51%-48% Romney.  

MI-08 goes 51%-48% Romney.  

AZ-09 looks like a 49%-49% tie, although late counting is more likely to tip it further in Obama's direction.

AZ-02 is currently 50%-48% Romney, but late counting could tip it to Obama.

AZ-01 went for Romney 51%-47%, but the margin could close as late balloting continues.  

Pretty sure CO-06 is another Obama/Republican district.  As the state and Jefferson county goes, so does that district.  

MN-01 went 49%-48% for Obama.  

MN-02 is a 49%-49% tie, with Romney coming out ahead by 1,000 votes.  

MN-03 is 50%-48% Romney. 

[Mr.Phips]

Phips, this is what someone on RRH calculated for PA-08:

Montgomery
Romney: 22,204, Obama: 17,919

Bucks
Romney: 155,876, Obama: 159598



Also, there isn't any of Jefferson in CO-06. It would be very close either way as Romney and this one needs to be carefully checked.

Hmm, I have Montco as 19223 Romney to 16684 Obama.  What I do is take the PVI from the 2008 numbers and use a uniform swing based on the county as a whole.  Probably not the most accurate way to do it, but it gets me close. 

PA-08 may be the only Kerry-Romney district in the country. 

[Mr.Phips]

FL-26 is a possibility.

No, Obama did really well among Cubans, significantly better than in 2008.  Obama probably carried that one by a good margin. 

[Mr.Phips]

Found another Obama/Republican district, NY-02.  Obama 52%, Romney 47%.  Sandy bump?

[Mr.Phips]

IL-6, IL-14 - Any chance Romney lost these districts?

No way Romney lost IL-06.  Obama didnt even carry the DuPage portion, which is the most Democratic part of the district.  Same deal with IL-14. 

[Mr.Phips]

IL-13 goes 50%-48% Romney.  Lots of narrow Romney districts everywhere. 

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like NJ-05 did narrowly go to Romney. 

[Mr.Phips]

CO-06 is another Obama/Republican district.  Goes 51%-47% Obama, just a micron to the right of the state as a whole.  

[Mr.Phips]

NY-19 is another Obama/Republican district.  Obama takes it 52%-46%.

[Mr.Phips]

Yet another Obama/Republican district, NV-03.  Obama takes it 50%-48%. 

[Mr.Phips]

OR-05 nearly flips to a Romney/Democrat district.  Obama wins here 50%-48%.  Really stupid for Democrats to agree to that "compromise" that moved most of the Multnomah county portion out of the district.  They should have just deadlocked the process and let the Secratary of State(who is a Dem) draw the map and unpack the third. 

[Mr.Phips]

WA-03 goes 50%-48% Romney. 

[Mr.Phips]

Here's an Obama Republican district that nobody seems to have mentioned.  WA-08 goes 50%-48% for Obama.  I just need to get county info on California and ill have a pretty good idea on all of the district.

[Mr.Phips]

My best guess: NJ-05 would have been a Romney/Democrat district had Steve Rothman decided to challenge Scott Garrett (who won a non-targeted race with a miserably low 55%) instead of Bill Pascrell.

Yeah, im pretty sure Rothman is now kicking himself. 

[Mr.Phips]

VA-10 is looking incredibly close.  I have Romney ahead by about 3,000 votes, but there could be some late Dem votes in Fairfax that could swing it.  Im pretty sure Kaine narrowly won the district.

[Mr.Phips]

VA-10 is looking incredibly close.  I have Romney ahead by about 3,000 votes, but there could be some late Dem votes in Fairfax that could swing it.  Im pretty sure Kaine narrowly won the district.

I checked VA-10 precinct by precinct. It went for Romney. The Fairfax portion went for Romney as well.


Oh, and the state did it too.

Link

You are correct. 

[Mr.Phips]

Pretty sure CA-10 is also an Obama/Republican district.  The district is pretty much all of Stanislaus(which Obama won by around the same margin as in 2008) and some of San Joaquin, whose  portion is a little more Dem than Stanislaus.