In 2010, Obama's approval rating outperformed that of the average Democrat.
Obama regularly outperforms is approval rating in head to head matchups.
Ergo, if another Democrat runs, they'll be of lower calliber AND there will be no confidence in the Democratic Party as a whole seeing as their last President just gave up.
In short, it would be an electoral disaster for the Democrats. They'd loose the Senate, Presidency, more of the house, state races, etc.
I think that, looking at the senators up, the Democrats are very likely to lose the Senate, even if there is an Obama victory.
At this point in time, Obama's numbers are lower than any president since 1972 that was reelected. That said, his numbers are not that much lower than the lowest president to be reelected.
I've been looking at Gallup to compare Obama with other presidents. The president elected with the lowest approval number was Clinton (42% in January 1996). It was closer to the election, but a bit higher.
I would not write Obama off just yet.
It would be far better for Democrats if Obama loses in 2012. If Democrats lose the Senate and Obama is reelected in the same year, what is the point? This win the Presidency and screw everything else attitude of Democrats is going to kill them.
