June Jobs Report

[Mr.Phips]

Probably something like 100-200K more jobs.

Rate should be down to 9%

I doubt that.  This is a month for big layoffs at the local level.  Id be surprised if the number is over 100K. 

[Mr.Phips]

Everyone should remember that due to graduations, June has far more entrants into the civilian labor force, than your typical month.

The real question appears to be how many people the 'adjustment bureau' can kick out of the civilian labor force.

That wasnt the case in June 2010, when the unemployment rate dipped from 9.7% to 9.6% while the economy lost almost 200,000 jobs. 

[Mr.Phips]

Everyone should remember that due to graduations, June has far more entrants into the civilian labor force, than your typical month.

The real question appears to be how many people the 'adjustment bureau' can kick out of the civilian labor force.

I know they kicked a lot of people out of the labor force in December and January.  The unemployment rate went down by eight tenths of a percent in that period.  You normally dont get that kind of drop with normal labor force participation rates unless 700,000 jobs are being created per month. 
That wasnt the case in June 2010, when the unemployment rate dipped from 9.7% to 9.6% while the economy lost almost 200,000 jobs. 

Please reread the second part of my post.

The 'adjustment bureau' has kept the U-3 (seasonally adjusted) unemployment rate down by kicking people out of the civilian labor force.

If you check the data, you will see that June does have disproportionately high entrant numbers into the civilian labor force.

Now, the question remains how many people can the adjustment bureau get away with kicking out of the civilian labor force?

[Mr.Phips]

Everyone should remember that due to graduations, June has far more entrants into the civilian labor force, than your typical month.

But the official numbers are seasonally adjusted to account for that kind of noise.

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BLS doesn't kick anyone out of the civilian labor force...the categories are self reported.  If someone reports that they are not working and haven't looked in more than 4 weeks they (and proportionately the number they represent in the sample) are counted as Not in the Labor Force.  It's all based on the survey reponse, not some arbitrary categorizing as you seem to imply.

And as a matter of fact, the Labor Force has increased every month this year.

There is no way the labor force increased in January.  If it did, there would have had to have been close to a million jobs created that month to move the unemployment rate down from 9.4% to 9%.