Looking ahead to 2014

[Mr.Phips]

Umm, way too far away to even attempt a prediction on what kind of year it will be.

Well, we would have a reasonable starting point of Republican gains in Congress in 2014 if Obama gets re-elected and Democratic gains in Congress if he does not.

Also depends on what the economy looks like in 2014.  If its roaring, we could see another 1998, especially if Republicans hold the majority. 

[Mr.Phips]

In 2014, I think it's going to be hard to find seats Democrats can win back. Almost all Republican-held seats are in the South and Mormon triangle. The only seats I can see Democrats winning is Kentucky if McConnell runs for reelection and Maine if Collins loses the primary. If Republicans have the White House and have low approvals, Georgia and Texas could also become competitive.

As for seats Republicans win, it all depends on the mood. Alaska has a great chance of switching, and Louisiana, Minnesota, and North Carolina all will probably be competitive, as will New Hampshire. Who knows after that?

2014 could also see at least 3-5 Democratic Senate retirements in blue(Atlas color)/swing states, in which I would find the Democrats being hard pressed to hold should Obama be President in 2014. Especially if he were to have the approvals he has now.

If Obama gets reelected, he'll likely have much higher approval ratings in 2014 as unemployment will likely be below 7% for the first time in six years and the economy will be back on track. 

[Mr.Phips]

In 2014, I think it's going to be hard to find seats Democrats can win back. Almost all Republican-held seats are in the South and Mormon triangle. The only seats I can see Democrats winning is Kentucky if McConnell runs for reelection and Maine if Collins loses the primary. If Republicans have the White House and have low approvals, Georgia and Texas could also become competitive.

As for seats Republicans win, it all depends on the mood. Alaska has a great chance of switching, and Louisiana, Minnesota, and North Carolina all will probably be competitive, as will New Hampshire. Who knows after that?

2014 could also see at least 3-5 Democratic Senate retirements in blue(Atlas color)/swing states, in which I would find the Democrats being hard pressed to hold should Obama be President in 2014. Especially if he were to have the approvals he has now.

If Obama gets reelected, he'll likely have much higher approval ratings in 2014 as unemployment will likely be below 7% for the first time in six years and the economy will be back on track.  

Don't assume such as anything can happen economically between now and then, and if that is the case it will be a very hollow recovery with many effects of the recession still remaining in my opinion.

Then again, who knows?

If its enough for Obama to get reelected in 2012, the economy should be in pretty good shape by 2014. 

[Mr.Phips]

In 2014, I think it's going to be hard to find seats Democrats can win back. Almost all Republican-held seats are in the South and Mormon triangle. The only seats I can see Democrats winning is Kentucky if McConnell runs for reelection and Maine if Collins loses the primary. If Republicans have the White House and have low approvals, Georgia and Texas could also become competitive.

As for seats Republicans win, it all depends on the mood. Alaska has a great chance of switching, and Louisiana, Minnesota, and North Carolina all will probably be competitive, as will New Hampshire. Who knows after that?

2014 could also see at least 3-5 Democratic Senate retirements in blue(Atlas color)/swing states, in which I would find the Democrats being hard pressed to hold should Obama be President in 2014. Especially if he were to have the approvals he has now.

If Obama gets reelected, he'll likely have much higher approval ratings in 2014 as unemployment will likely be below 7% for the first time in six years and the economy will be back on track.  

Don't assume such as anything can happen economically between now and then, and if that is the case it will be a very hollow recovery with many effects of the recession still remaining in my opinion.

Then again, who knows?

If its enough for Obama to get reelected in 2012, the economy should be in pretty good shape by 2014.  

I figure Obama is going to get reelected more due to a horrible GOP opponent then anything else, as this year has shown. Never underestimate the Republican Party's ability to piss away winnable elections.

If the economy isnt good or isnt perceived to be good, Obama will lose.  Never has an incumbent won reelection in modern history when the economy wasnt perceived to be good.

In 1992, Bill Clinton was able to beat George H.W. Bush even with his scandals because the economy was perceived to be poor even though GDP grew at a brisk 4% pace that year.  Had Clinton run against Bush in a 1996 type economy or even 1988, he would have lost because of his scandals.

Even Obama would have been a joke candidate if we had not been in a recession in 2008.

Its all the economy.

[Mr.Phips]

In 2014, I think it's going to be hard to find seats Democrats can win back. Almost all Republican-held seats are in the South and Mormon triangle. The only seats I can see Democrats winning is Kentucky if McConnell runs for reelection and Maine if Collins loses the primary. If Republicans have the White House and have low approvals, Georgia and Texas could also become competitive.

As for seats Republicans win, it all depends on the mood. Alaska has a great chance of switching, and Louisiana, Minnesota, and North Carolina all will probably be competitive, as will New Hampshire. Who knows after that?

2014 could also see at least 3-5 Democratic Senate retirements in blue(Atlas color)/swing states, in which I would find the Democrats being hard pressed to hold should Obama be President in 2014. Especially if he were to have the approvals he has now.

If Obama gets reelected, he'll likely have much higher approval ratings in 2014 as unemployment will likely be below 7% for the first time in six years and the economy will be back on track. 

Don't assume such as anything can happen economically between now and then, and if that is the case it will be a very hollow recovery with many effects of the recession still remaining in my opinion.

Then again, who knows?

If its enough for Obama to get reelected in 2012, the economy should be in pretty good shape by 2014. 

I figure Obama is going to get reelected more due to a horrible GOP opponent then anything else, as this year has shown. Never underestimate the Republican Party's ability to piss away winnable elections.

If the economy isnt good or isnt perceived to be good, Obama will lose.  Never has an incumbent won reelection in modern history when the economy wasnt perceived to be good.

In 1992, Bill Clinton was able to beat George H.W. Bush even with his scandals because the economy was perceived to be poor even though GDP grew at a brisk 4% pace that year.  Had Clinton run against Bush in a 1996 type economy or even 1988, he would have lost because of his scandals. 

Its all the economy.

Who was it that coined the phrase, "it's the economy, stupid"?

Mr. James Carville.

He's right too.  An incumbent party has never been able to win the White House at a time that the economy was bad or perceived to be bad. 

Better way of putting it, the incumbent party has never held the White House when the consumer confidence index was below 95.   

Here are the yearly averages for Presidential years going back to 1968.

2008:  60-Incumbent Party Lost
2004:  95-Incumbent Party Won
2000:  140-Incumbent Party Lost
1996:  104-Incumbent Party Lost
1992:  60-Incumbent Party Lost
1988:  115-Incumbent Party Won
1984:  103-Incumbent party Won
1980:  73-Incumbent party Lost
1976:  93-Incumbent party Lost
1972:  101-Incumbent party Won
1960:  136-Incumbent party lost

[Mr.Phips]

Very qualitative ideas for the next few years:

2010: House: GOP (barely), Senate: GOP (barely)

Obama wins big in 2012

2012- House: Dems (by around the 2008 margin), Senate: Dems (barely)
2014- House: Dems (barely), Senate: GOP (barely)

Obama wins narrowly in 2012

2012- House: Dems (by around the 2006 margin), Senate: GOP
2014- House: Dems (barely) , Senate: GOP (at least 55)


Obama loses in 2012

2012- House: GOP (by the 2004 margin), Senate: GOP (at least 55)
2014- House: GOP (barely), Senate: GOP (barely)

An Obama win would bring in more than enough youth and minority turnout to flip the House back in 2012, but they will be fighting for their political lives in 2014.  If he barely wins, they won't be as ambitious and will hold on better in 2014.

This actually sounds about right.  I think if Obama wins reelection, the House is very likely to go back to Democrats as the Democratic percentage in the House popular vote has matched up identically with the Democratic Presidential performance since 1996.