KY-03: Braun Research/cn|2: Yarmuth cruising

[Mr.Phips]

This is one district that is getting safer and safer for Democrats, as Conservative, white suburbanites continue to flee west to KY-02, north to IN-09, or east to KY-04.  This leaves KY-03 as a blacker and more liberal district.

[Mr.Phips]

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nope. The black percentage is "too" high.

You could say the same for OH-01, which is a similar district.

[Mr.Phips]

Surely this is the type of seat the GOP will be wanting to pick-up if they wanting to take the house...

Nope. The black percentage is "too" high.

You could say the same for OH-01, which is a similar district.

Yes, but the whites are very conservative in Hamilton County (even the German Jews who have been around town since the 1840's, with a lot of the working class whites from the uber GOP mountains of the non coal mining areas of Kentucky which stayed loyal to the union, to boot), and that is not so much the case with Louisville.

The more conservative parts of Hamilton county are actually in OH-02.

[Mr.Phips]

The richest parts of Hamilton County (Indian Hill in particular) are in OH-2 (slightly more conservative than the County at large), but that loss to OH-1 is more than counterbalanced by the slug of Butler County in OH-1, that the GOP appended to the district in its Gerrymander.

Yeah.  John Kerry actually won the Hamilton county part of OH-01, but lost the district by two points because of the Butler county portion.  Im surprised that Cincinatti politicians didnt try to block the addition of Butler county since it violates the communities of interest principle in a district that has traditionally been the Cincinatti and Hamilton county only district.