No President has been reelected with over 6% unemployment

[Mr.Phips]

With the exceptions of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and FDR in 1936.  FDR and Reagan were both transformative Presidents who changed the political landscape by passing programs that linked many voters to them and their parties for years to come.  They are the exceptions here.

Here are the unemployment rates at reelection time for every President reelected since 1948.

2004, Bush(R):  5.4%
1996, Clinton(D):  5.4%
1984, Reagan(R):  7.2%
1972, Nixon(R):  5.3%
1964, Johnson(D):  4.8%
1956, Eisenhowr(R):  4.3%
1948, Truman(D):  3.8%

Average:  5.2%

Unless Obama can pass healthcare reform, which would link many new voters to him and the Democratic party as Social Security and public works programs did for FDR and tax cuts did for Reagan, he will not be reelected unless unemployment falls below 6% in the next two years. 

[Mr.Phips]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

[Mr.Phips]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

That wasn't my point. My point was that if the economy is sluggish but recovering in 2012, Obama should be fine, just like FDR and Reagan before him. The economy isn't recovering much right now (in terms of jobs) and thus Obama is currently having trouble in the polls.

The economy was sluggish, but recovering in 1992 and that didnt help Bush 41.  Same with Ford in 1976. 

[Mr.Phips]

The title of your thread is misleading. BTW, just like Reagan can say he inherited an economic mess from Carter and FDR can say he inherited an economic mess from Hoover, Obama can say that he inherited an economic mess from Bush Jr. If unemployment is 8.0% or lower on election day and is consistenly decreasing, Obama will get reelected.

If people bought that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, then why is he having so much trouble in polls right now?

That wasn't my point. My point was that if the economy is sluggish but recovering in 2012, Obama should be fine, just like FDR and Reagan before him. The economy isn't recovering much right now (in terms of jobs) and thus Obama is currently having trouble in the polls.

The economy was sluggish, but recovering in 1992 and that didnt help Bush 41.  Same with Ford in 1976. 

In both cases unemployment was quite a bit higher than it was when Ford and Bush took office.  Also, while unemployment was down from the peak for both, it was much closer to the peak of unemployment than it was when they took office.  For example, the unemployment rate just before Election Day in 1976, was down 1.3 points from its peak a year earlier, but was still 2.2 points higher then it was when Ford took office in August 74.  Not to mention Ford had to deal with the whole Nixon fiasco and backlash. 

In Bush's case the peak of unemployment came during the summer of 1992, the numbers heading into Election Day 92 were only a couple tenths lower than the peak of the Unemployment rate.   It was also 2.2 points higher than when he took office.

Hmm, maybe I should have also said that no President has been reelected with a higher unemployment rate than they were first elected with.  But that wouldnt apply for George W. Bush, who saw the uenmployment rate rise by around 1.3 points. 

[Mr.Phips]

Obama shan't be re-elected. The healthcare fiasco will shoot him down.

That's what they said about Clinton.

That's not true at all.  Many thought he would likely get reelected anyway because the economy was so strong.  Obama doesnt have that luxury.