Critz vs. Burns for PA-12 (user search)

Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp

Posts: 8,547

Re: PA-12 2010 Special Election

« on: February 19, 2010, 06:02:26 PM »

This district is going to get chopped up beyond recognition in 2011 anyway. Not much incentive for anyone to run.

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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp

Posts: 8,547

Re: PA-12 2010 Special Election

« Reply #1 on: February 19, 2010, 06:41:39 PM »

Quote from: J. J. on February 19, 2010, 06:16:21 PM

Quote from: Mr.Phips on February 19, 2010, 06:02:26 PM

This district is going to get chopped up beyond recognition in 2011 anyway. Not much incentive for anyone to run.

A Republican might be given a GOP district.

They could shift the 5th and 9th Districts to the east a bit.

That would be impossible without getting rid of Murphy's PA-18. Either PA-18 or PA-12 will have to go in redistricting. Republicans wont touch Doyle's district, because no other Republican wants any part of his territory in their district.

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Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp

Posts: 8,547

Re: Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2010, 10:04:18 PM »

After doing some numbers and analysis, I have to believe that Critz is favored here. Before 2008, no Democratic Presidential candidate has lost this district in its current configuration since 1972. The reason Obama lost this district was certainly his race. Case in point, even Democratic Supreme Court nominee Jack Panella in 2009, who lost statewide by six points, carried this district 51%-49%.

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