Have we ever had a year where both parties picked up >5 governorships?

[Mr.Phips]

Three factors that contribute to large numbers of pickups for both sides:

- Crappy economy
- Lots of open seats
- Partisan identification matters less than in federal races

Also, there's not going to be a strong trend towards one party as there was in 1994 (where the Democrats only picked up one governor's mansion -- Alaska, of all places) or 2006.

I wouldn't count your chickens on the last point.  At least, the governor's races are very favorable to republicans, and as shown in places like New Jersey, the blacks came out to vote for Obama, but feel like they did their duty and will not show.  Its going to hurt your party in areas where there are heavy black populations that put your candidates over the edge.  Republicans pick up 6 governorships overall.   Other than New Hampshire, there is the possibility that the entire northeast could have governors other than democrats - not good for you guys.

How about Republicans in states like Vermont, Connecticut, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Florida, and Arizona where they are the incumbents and the economy is terrible? 

What helped Republicans pick up so many governorships in 1994 was the fact that they had many incumbents who were able to take credit for the economic recovery and get reelected(John Engler, Tommy Thompson, Terry Brandstad, ect)

[Mr.Phips]

Three factors that contribute to large numbers of pickups for both sides:

- Crappy economy
- Lots of open seats
- Partisan identification matters less than in federal races

Also, there's not going to be a strong trend towards one party as there was in 1994 (where the Democrats only picked up one governor's mansion -- Alaska, of all places) or 2006.

I wouldn't count your chickens on the last point.  At least, the governor's races are very favorable to republicans, and as shown in places like New Jersey, the blacks came out to vote for Obama, but feel like they did their duty and will not show.  Its going to hurt your party in areas where there are heavy black populations that put your candidates over the edge.  Republicans pick up 6 governorships overall.   Other than New Hampshire, there is the possibility that the entire northeast could have governors other than democrats - not good for you guys.

How about Republicans in states like Vermont, Connecticut, California, Minnesota, Hawaii, Florida, and Arizona where they are the incumbents and the economy is terrible? 

What helped Republicans pick up so many governorships in 1994 was the fact that they had many incumbents who were able to take credit for the economic recovery and get reelected(John Engler, Tommy Thompson, Terry Brandstad, ect)

Did you see my prediction though?  I have CT, HI, FL, & AZ all going dem.  VT and CA have strong republican candidates, and the democrats (unless feinstein jumps in in CA) have weak ones or a fractured primary.  By the way, my CA analysis comes mainly from former SF mayor Willie Brown, who writes articles about CA politics.  My thought however still stands, it is possible that other than in NH, the northeast will not have a single democratic governor (unless you include Delaware too, but I think its still part of the mid-atlantic region).  And how odd, considering NH is the most conservative of those states.  Now how likely is this, probably a 40% chance, because of the democratic nature of the states. 

You have got to give Democrats California, Minnesota, and Vermont.  Republicans have nobodies running in Minnesota and Jerry Brown is very strong in California.