NY-20 Final Predictions

[minionofmidas]

The problem with the GOP Always Voters thesis is that, in areas like this one, a large number of them has voted Democratic in 2006 and 2008.

Lunar went with Murphy by 5.24? Okay, I'll say 5.25.

[minionofmidas]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

[minionofmidas]

Why would Republicans be better off if they lost today? I doubt this special election is going to significantly alter the long-term fates of either party, if at all.

Spin that the party is on the right track, and a strengthening of its current (esp. congressional) leadership, is probably not in the party's longterm interests.
They're in danger of falling into the same trap they fell into in ca.1935. And you know how that turned out for them.

This isn't 1935, rather it's more like 1930 where 1929 was in the opposite parties' hands.  Which makes everything a bit more confusing.

But I think we probably agree on the general points, yes.

Yeah, obviously the analogy isn't an exact one. Anyways I was talking a worst case scenario, really.

[minionofmidas]

1929 was not like 2008.  The economy was clearly in trouble starting in 2007 and that was when the recession started.  It wasnt like the economy "suddenly" got bad in September 2008 like in 1929. 

Well, the economy didn't really "suddenly" go bad in 1929, despite the Crash. There was a steady decline in the economy through early 1933. Hoover saying that prosperity was right 'round the corner wasn't unreasonable in 1930, and it was the continuing rise in unemployment and business failures that made him look laughable as held to that line.

The closest analogue to a summer '08 would be spring of '33 when bank failures began to get serious.

More to the point, the economy didn't "suddenly" go bad in 1929 - the warning signs that the short 20s boom was over had been accumulating for more than a year by then. The NY stock market, too, had been falling for several months before the crash.

[minionofmidas]

My Prediction

Tedisco 50%
Murphy 50%

I say this for several reasons. First I am just too unsure to commit to either one of them. Second I beleive this will be extremely close. Thirdly I think it would be absolutely hilarious to have a second Minnesota in the less then a year.

You might yet lose to Bacon King, but for now you're ahead.