MW08's FINAL House predictions

[minionofmidas]

Oh whatever, I'll play.

Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), FL-24 (Feeney), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), NJ-03* (Saxton), MN-03* (Ramstad),  PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays) 

GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney)

Democrats pick up 21 GOP seats
Republican pick up 1 Democratic seat

Net gain: =  +20 Democrats

New House partisan breakdown:
258 Democrats
176 Republican
1  runoff (LA-04)

[minionofmidas]

Oh whatever, I'll play.

Democratic pickups:
NY-13* (Fossella), NY-25*  (Walsh), VA-11* (Davis),  AZ-01* (Renzi), OH-16* (Regula),  IL-11* (Weller), FL-24 (Feeney), CO-04 (Musgrave), NV-03 (Porter), NC-08 (Hayes), NM-01* (Wilson), OH-15* (Pryce), NM-02* (Pearce) , AK-AL (Young), MI-09 (Knollenberg), NJ-03* (Saxton), MN-03* (Ramstad),  PA-03 (English), CA-04* (Doolittle) IL-10 (Kirk), CT-04 (Shays) 

GOP pickups:
FL-16 (Mahoney)

Democrats pick up 21 GOP seats
Republican pick up 1 Democratic seat

Net gain: =  +20 Democrats

New House partisan breakdown:
258 Democrats
176 Republican
1  runoff (LA-04)

Two runoffs actually, not that the LA-2 runoff will be remotely interesting.

I want to specify though... breaking down House races into the six categories of Atlas predictions.
Basically tossup means I've no clue really who'll win, and I'll hardly consider myself to have been wrong if this goes the other way (unless the margin is massive), lean means I will, but won't exactly be shocked. Safe seats (ie seats where I will be shocked if I'm wrong) listed only where they're changing hands. In other groups, asterisk means changes hands.

Safe Dem
NY13, NY25, IL11, FL24, AZ1

Lean Dem
NH1, NJ3*, OH15*, OH16*, WI8, KS2, VA11*, GA8, AL5, LA6, CO4*, NM1*, AZ8, NV3*, AK*

Tossup Dem
CT4*, PA3*, PA11, IL10*, MI9*, MN3*, NC8*, FL8* (accidentally omitted from list above - so one extra Dem gain predicted), TX22, NM2*, CA4*

Tossup Rep
NY29, OH1, MI7, MN6, MD1, FL21, FL25, AL2, ID1, WA8

Lean Rep
NY26, NJ5, NJ7, OH2, IN3, IA4, MO9, NE2, VA2, VA5, FL13, KY2, TX7, TX10, WY, NV2

Safe Rep
FL16

[minionofmidas]

Safe Dem
NY13, NY25, IL11, FL24, AZ1

All happened, none were close.

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Wrong on KS2, LA6, AK. What's the word out on OH-15? When to expect figures here?

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Wrong in IL10, MN3, TX22, CA4.

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Wrong on NY29, OH1, MI7, MD1, AL2, ID1.

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Wrong on VA2, VA5.

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Well, obviously.

So... missed three of the four Dem losses, 8 Dem gains, wrongly predicted 4-5 Dem gains. Not great, but then I didn't claim to be great.