New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll (user search)
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Author Topic: New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll  (Read 25832 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« on: September 12, 2008, 01:55:31 PM »

Noticed their slightly oddish regional definitions (OK, TX and CO in the Midwest? Huh?), calculated 2004 results by these regions:

Northeast Kerry 55.5 Bush 43.4
South        Bush 55.9 Kerry 43.3
Midwest    Bush 53.2 Kerry 46.0
West         Kerry 50.1 Bush 48.5

Compared to their polling (and I do note this is at the Obaman end of current polling) of
Northeast Obama 55 McCain 37
South        McCain 54 Obama 38
Midwest    Obama 50 McCain 43
West         Obama 48 McCain 44

Just for jokes' sake, applying an intra-regional uniform swing would cause Ohio, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, and New Mexico (but not Nevada. Just barely not.) to flip.

Hm. Probably just too few Texans in that Midwest sample.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2008, 02:18:45 AM »

At least they are willing to release ALL internals of their tracking poll, unlike the major pollsters.

I actually do congratulate DailyKos for what they are doing.

My point however is that given the nature of their site, regardless of whom they select as their pollster there will be charges of bias. 

Picking a firm with a slight democratic bias, and a principle pollster with long ties to the Democratic party does not help this perception.

Pollsters make a profit on polls.

They probably preferred to let that profit go to a friend of theirs.
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minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,206
India


« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2008, 09:54:17 AM »

Stickied to satisfy Lewis and to assuage any other concerns of my conservative bias. Smiley

Oh yeah, and to stop annoying Sam with having to bump it every day.

Cheesy
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