London Mayoral and GLA Results Thread

[minionofmidas]

If Johnson is ahead in 9 and Livingstone is ahead in 5 of the constituencies on first pref.s, as I read someplace, that would mirror the last assembly elections. Not yet in the bag for Johnson.

[minionofmidas]

Not a big turnout gap.

[minionofmidas]

National Front 6%?


Can someone tell me about that?

Cleverly is black and this is Bromley

So 6% of Londoners in this area thinks a black man is unacceptable? And in all it adds up to around 11%?


Yet still he crushed the Labour candidate.


So Bromley is right wing?

Yep. Send three Tories (and noone else) to Westminster throughout the Labour years. Bexley is historically Tory as well, but not quite as much.

Re Hash: So all the Tories did was mop up the UKIP vote? [hyperbole]Time to open up the champagne for Ken's third term I suppose.[/hyperbole]

[minionofmidas]

Brent and Harrow

Labour gain from Conservatives

Navin Shah (Lab) 57,760 (37.29%, +7.29%)
Bob Blackman (Con) 56,067 (36.20%, +2.21%)
James Allie (Lib Dem) 19,299 (12.46%, -5.24%)
Shahrar Ali (Green) 10,129 (6.54%, +0.60%)
Zena Sherman (CPA) 4,180 (2.70%, +0.37%)
Sunita Webb (Ukip) 3,021 (1.95%, -4.18%)
Pat McManus (Left List) 2,287 (1.48%)
Arvind Tailor (Eng Dem) 2,150 (1.39%)
Lab maj 1,693 (1.09%)
2.54% swing Con to Lab
Electorate 367,337; Turnout 154,893 (42.17%, +6.88%)

[minionofmidas]

Found this at the Guardian... not up yet at London Elects.

[minionofmidas]

Constituency Forecast (based on Bexley)
Con 12 (+3 on 2004)
Lab 1 (-4 on 2004)
Lib Dem 1 (+1 on 2004)

Lol. Labour already have three or four...


Btw, here's City to Dagenham:
John Biggs      The Labour Party      63,635      33.97%
Philip Briscoe    Conservative Party    32,082    17.12%    
Hanif Abdulmuhit    Respect (George Galloway)    26,760    14.28%    
Robert Bailey    British National Party    18,020    9.62%    
Rajonuddin Jalal    Liberal Democrats    13,724    7.33%    
Heather Finlay    Green Party    11,478    6.13%    
Thomas Conquest    Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party    7,306    3.90%    
Michael McGough    UK Independence Party    3,078    1.64%    
Graham Kemp    National Front    2,350    1.25%    
Michael Gavan    Left List    2,274    1.21%    
John Griffiths    English Democrats    2,048    1.09%    
Julie Crawford    Independent    701    0.37%    

Ouch.

[minionofmidas]

City to Dagenham is first constituency to release mayoral (1st count) result:

Ken Livingstone      The Labour Party      94,921      50.61%     
Boris Johnson    Conservative Party    49,666    26.48%
Brian Paddick    Liberal Democrats    12,724    6.78%    
Richard Barnbrook    British National Party    10,214    5.45%    
Alan Craig    Christian Peoples Alliance and Christian Party    4,906    2.62%    
Siân Berry    Green Party    4,817    2.57%    
Gerard Batten    UK Independence Party    1,916    1.02%    
Lindsey German    Left List    1,851    0.99%    
Matt O'Connor    English Democrats    882    0.47%    
Winston McKenzie    Independent    566    0.30%    

Comparison not up yet, apparently.

[minionofmidas]

So, of the first 4 seats announced, we have 3 L vs 1C. Not likely to last, but for now Labor is doing great And, of course, the first preferences for mayor in the two districts that have announced them give Livingston an 85 thousand vote lead. I guess, the Labs would sell their soul to have the time stopped right now

...and with Bexley & Bromley mayorals released, that dwindles to just a couple of thousand...

Yeah. Looks like a strongly polarized result. Which implies a narrow( or at least narrowish) Johnson victory.

[minionofmidas]

How will the Libdem second prefs go?

Good question. Used to break Labour, but not by much. If Livingstone will eke this one out (not believing it, mind), it'll be by further increasing his share of them as the 1)LD 2)Tory type voted Tory on the first pref.

[minionofmidas]

How will the Libdem second prefs go?

I'd say at least two-thirds for Livingstone.

The Bexley first and second numbers say differently (assuming the Green vote went mostly to Livingstone).

Where're you getting them from?

[minionofmidas]

Johnson at 53.2 - about 1 to1.5 more than I thought he would get, last night. Due to second pref.s breaking only narrowly for Livingstone.

[minionofmidas]

New (old) assembly

Con 8 + 3 (9 + 0)
Lab 6 + 2 (5 + 2)
LD 0 + 3 (0 + 5)
Green 0 + 2 (0 + 2)
BNP 0 + 1 (0 + 0)
...UKIP 0 + 0 (0 + 2) - outpolled by Christian Choice, Abolish the Congestion Charge, and Respect Cats.

[minionofmidas]

I think it would suffice to remove Bexley & Bromley and either Havering & Redbridge or Croydon & Sutton to have Livingstone pip Johnson.

[minionofmidas]

Following places need removing from London: Havering & Redbridge, Bexley & Bromley, Croydon & Sutton and Ealing & Hillingdon. Not only did they vote heavily for Boris, they also gave the BNP more votes than the Green candidate. It's not like half of them are really in London anyway...

It's that sort of of elitist attitude towards the voters and taxpayers of Outer London that cost Ken his job.

I frankly don't think dismissing the poshest parts (apart from South Kensington) of London can be called "elitist" without a noticeable expenditure of lifetime credibility.
Of course I realize you're just stealing a page out of the Rethuglican book there.

It's not right to do what JFK is doing, of course... but "elitist" is not an applicable term.

[minionofmidas]

All I'm saying, is try living outside a city as I do, that has been stripped of its suburbs; the people who commute to the city, work in the city, use their parks and leisure facilities, transport and amenities and consider themselves part of the city but don't pay a penny towards it while those who do pay higher council tax rates. Yes the city is 'socialist' in perpetuity as a result, but it struggles and the poorest end up subsidising the well to do who live outwith the boundaries.

Oh yes. I'm from Frankfurt, I know all about that. Not that we're perpetually socialist as a result...

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That's exactly why it had to be done. Just trying to keep a good man from going down into bottomless hackery.

[minionofmidas]

The BNP told their voters to vote Johnson on second preference, didn't they. Seems that they largely disobeyed and voted for him on first preference.

Well, yeah. That much is obvious from the constituency results. I think you'll find a similar Green-Ken linkage.

[minionofmidas]

without BNP voters, Johnson would have been elected mayor ?

As in, everybody who voted BNP for the assembly list in real life doesn't show up?

He probably would have won anyways, but it would have been nailbiter tight.

[minionofmidas]

Lol at Eltham.