2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

In Göttingen area the SPD and CDU division is related to the Catholic -  Lutherian division in the area. Eichsfeld (Duderstadt) is traditionally and the protestant areas are traditionally SPD. It is interesting that in some circles the North Hesse is understood as some sort of rural periphery area of the Western Germany. 

True enough.

But Göttingen (three southernmost constituencies for the Landtag) was won by the CDU in the 1994 federals - unlike most of the country just north of that red blot.

[minionofmidas]

CDU beats SPD by 3.595 votes ! Recount ! *just kidding*

Are there any postal votes left to count ?

No.

(And they benefit the CDU - I'm 100% sure the SPD won day voting precincts yesterday.)

The CDU wants to lead a Grand Coalition now. Boddenberg has been a bit cagey about Koch's future, though.
The SPD wants to be joined by the FDP in a traffic light, but the FDP doesn't want to.
We shall see... this'll take a while.

[minionofmidas]

To extemporate on what I said about the uselessness of the direct vote...thanks to CDU and SPD  putting their direct candidates into the first 55 spots of the list anyways...

If there wasn't a direct vote and the lists were the same as they were, there'd be a total of 11 different MdLs - 7 for the CDU and 4 for the SPD.

Would have been elected that way:
Name (Party list spot / Constituency)
Claudia Ravensburg (CDU 35 / Frankenberg)
Klaus Dietz (CDU 37 / Wetterau East)
Frank Williges (CDU 38 / Kassel suburbs)
Roger Lenhart (CDU 39 / Groß-Gerau North)
Marion Petri (CDU 40 / Wiesbaden West)
Kurt Wiegel (CDU 41 / Vogelsberg)
Dirk Landau (CDU 42 / Eschwege)
Manfred Gönsch (SPD 34 / Hochtaunus West)
Roger Podstatny (SPD 37 / Frankfurt West)
Ulrike Alex (SPD 38 / Offenbach suburban Central)
Stephan Aurand (SPD 40 / Dill Valley)

Elected in their stead:
Hugo Klein (CDU 44 / Hanau suburbs)
Holger Bellino (CDU 46 / Hochtaunus East)
Hartmut Horka (CDU 49 / Offenbach suburban West)
Peter Stephan (CDU 50 / Bergstraße West)
Ralf-Norbert Bartelt (CDU 51 / Frankfurt West Central)
Tobias Utter (CDU 52 / Wetterau SW)
Alexander Bauer (CDU 53 / Bergstraße East)
Silke Tesch (SPD 43 / Biedenkopf)
Michael Paris (SPD 45 / Frankfurt East Central)
Dagmar Metzger (SPD 46 / Darmstadt South)
Wolfgang Decker (SPD 49 / Kassel East)

[minionofmidas]

Top five and Drop five Frankfurt precincts (also answers Tender's question on postal votes rather impressively)

CDU:
Sossenheim East postal 52.6
Zeilsheim postal 52.4
a precinct in north central Nied 52.2
southern Sachsenhausen postal precinct that includes the Lerchesberg 52.1
Seckbach North postal 51.3
...
Bockenheim just northwest of Hessenplatz 16.7
Round about the Prüfling in Bornheim 16.3
Just across Friedberger and Alleenring from the Fachhochschule 15.8
Just north of Merianplatz 15.2
Just southwest of Bornheim Mitte subway station 15.0 (latter three all in Nordend Ost)

SPD
Southeastern Hausen 52.7
Western Ben-Gurion-Ring (nominally Nieder-Eschbach) 52.1
Northernmost precinct in Höchst 51.0
South of Wöllstädter in Bornheim 49.3
neighboring precinct in Höchst 48.3
...
central West End postal 18.0 (that's in South)
Sachsenhäuser Berg postal 17.9 (that's in South)
central Sachsenhäuser Berg 16.9
postal including Lerchesberg 15.9
Lerchesberg 11.2

Greens
Between Schwarzburg and Nordend 27.3 (Nordend W)
Just Southeast of Bornheim Mitte 24.5 (Bornheim)
Across from the FH 24.0
Between Wieland and Neuhof 23.9 (Nordend W)
NW of Hessenplatz 23.4
...
Northernmost Nied 2.8
Southwesternmost Sossenheim 2.6
one in northern Zeilsheim 2.5
Zeilsheim postal 2.0
that same Nied precinct mentioned for the CDU 2.0

FDP
Lerchesberg 28.3
Central West End precinct holding West End Synagogue 24.6
neighboring, right by the Palmengarten 24.3
Westend North precinct including Grüneburgpark and Campus Westend 23.9
Dichterviertel (poshest bit of the Dornbusch) 23.8
...
Estateland precinct in North Sindlingen 3.3
one in Northern Griesheim right around the Mainzer 3.2
Sindlingen postal 3.1
same Sossenheim precinct that also hates the Greens 2.2
Jügesheimer Straße in Niederrad 2.1

Left
Riederwald postal 17.0
Jügesheimer 15.2
Northwestern Gutleut proper 15.0
Gallus near where my mom grew up, just east of the more westerly railroad tracks 14.5
Bockenheim just north of Adalbert 14.3
...
Lerchesberg 1.9
postal precinct including the Lerchesberg 1.7
Seckbach north postal 1.5
SW corner of Schwanheim 1.0
northern Eschersheim around Im Uhrig 0.0

[minionofmidas]

"Greens: Rule out a coalition with the Left. Reluctantly favor a coalition with the SPD and the FDP. I don't know what their stance concerning the CDU is or whether they even have an official one, but I guess they would rule a coalition with the CDU and the FDP too (since they already seem somewhat reluctant when it comes to a SPD/FDP/Green coalition)."

Ruled out a coalition with the CDU. In rather clearer terms than one with the Left, actually.

[minionofmidas]

The Göttingen/Kassel thing shows up quite clearly. But what's with the big swing to the SPD in Salzgitter?

RE your question days ago about the one seat notionally lost by the SPD....

Goslar. Sigmar Gabriel's constituency.

[minionofmidas]

Hesse by Bundestag constituency, own calculations
List vote. Comparison is with 2005 Bundestag result.

Hesse
turnout 64.3 - CDU 36.8 (+3.1) - SPD 36.7 (+1.0) - FDP 9.4 (-2.3) - Greens 7.5 (-2.6) - Left 5.1 (-0.2)

Waldeck
turnout 63.7 - SPD 44.3 (+0.2) - CDU 32.2 (+2.0) - FDP 8.5 (-1.3) - Greens 5.9 (-1.6) - Left 5.4 (0)
Includes Waldeck, Kassel rural I except those two towns recently transferred in, and two towns (including Baunatal, the largest) from southwest corner of Kassel suburban rural II
Kassel
turnout 61.6 - SPD 44.5 (+0.6) - CDU 27.2 (+0.7) - Greens 9.9 (-2.0) - Left 7.6 (+0.8) - FDP 7.5 (-0.7)
City, remainder of rural district
Werra-Meißner / Hersfeld-Rotenburg
turnout 64.5 - SPD 45.0 (-0.3) - CDU 33.2 (+3.4) - FDP 7.2 (-1.5) - Left 5.6 (-0.3) - Greens 4.9 (-1.8)
Districts as titled
Schwalm-Eder
turnout 65.5 - SPD 44.2 (-0.8) - CDU 31.0 (+2.4) - FDP 9.1 (-0.8) - Greens 5.6 (-1.6) - Left 5.5 (-0.3)
Also includes Frankenberg
Marburg
turnout 64.3 - SPD 43.3 (+4.4) - CDU 32.5 (+0.6) - FDP 7.9 (-1.5) - Greens 7.0 (-3.1) - Left 5.9 (-0.3)
Marburg-Biedenkopf district
Lahn-Dill
turnout 60.1 - CDU 39.2 (+4.7) - SPD 38.4 (+1.1) - FDP 8.0 (-2.7) - Greens 4.8 (-2.7) - Left 4.7 (-1.0)
District, two towns from northwestern Gießen district
Gießen
turnout 64.7 - SPD 40.3 (+3.9) - CDU 34.0 (+2.0) - FDP 9.0 (-3.4) - Greens 6.3 (-3.7) - Left 4.9 (-0.9)
remainder of district, somewhat over half of Vogelsberg district (former Alsfeld district and town of Schotten)
Fulda
turnout 64.4 - CDU 46.5 (+3.0) - SPD 29.9 (-0.6) - FDP 9.4 (-1.2) - Greens 4.9 (-1.2) - Left 4.6 (-0.3)
district, remainder of Vogelsberg, four towns of Main-Kinzig district (eastern part of former Schlüchtern district)
Hochtaunus
turnout 68.0 - CDU 43.5 (+6.1) - SPD 29.4 (-0.2) - FDP 12.1 (-3.5) - Greens 7.2 (-2.6) - Left 4.1 (-0.5)
district except three southern towns of Steinbach, Kronberg and Königstein, Weilburg constituency
Wetterau
turnout 64.6 - CDU 39.7 (+5.0) - SPD 34.6 (-0.1) - FDP 9.4 (-2.9) - Greens 6.2 (-3.0) - Left 4.4 (-0.6)
district, three western towns of former Schlüchtern district
Rheingau-Taunus / Limburg
turnout 66.0 - CDU 42.1 (+2.3) - SPD 33.0 (+1.1) - FDP 10.4 (-2.1) - Greens 6.7 (-2.1) - Left 3.8 (-0.3)
Rheingau-Taunus district, Limburg constituency
Wiesbaden
turnout 60.8 - CDU 36.1 (+4.0) - SPD 35.2 (+2.6) - FDP 10.7 (-2.6) - Greens 9.3 (-4.0) - Left 5.1 (0)
city
Hanau
turnout 63.5 - CDU 39.7 (+4.6) - SPD 34.7 (+0.3) - FDP 9.0 (-2.7) - Greens 6.5 (-2.6) - Left 5.2 (-0.3)
Main-Kinzig district except former Schlüchtern district
Main-Taunus
turnout 71.6 - CDU 43.6 (+3.5) - SPD 26.6 (-0.7) - FDP 13.8 (-2.6) - Greens 8.7 (-1.3) - Left 3.5 (-0.1)
district, three Hochtaunus towns
Frankfurt am Main I
turnout 60.6 - CDU 34.3 (+4.8) - SPD 33.9 (+2.8) - FDP 10.5 (-2.4) - Greens 9.9 (-5.7) - Left 7.1 (+0.1)
constituencies I, II and III
Frankfurt am Main II
turnout 64.4 - SPD 33.1 (+3.2) - CDU 32.3 (+3.1) - Greens 12.8 (-4.7) - FDP 11.0 (-2.8) - Left 7.0 (+0.5)
constituencies IV, V and VI
Groß-Gerau
turnout 65.0 - SPD 39.4 (+0.2) - CDU 33.1 (+2.9) - Greens 9.2 (-1.5) - FDP 7.5 (-3.2) - Left 5.0 (-0.1)
district
Offenbach
turnout 62.6 - CDU 39.4 (+3.4) - SPD 32.7 (+0.7) - FDP 9.6 (-3.0) - Greens 8.9 (-2.0) - Left 5.0 (-0.1)
city, suburban rural I and II constituencies
Darmstadt
turnout 67.4 - SPD 39.5 (+3.0) - CDU 31.5 (+1.1) - Greens 11.0 (-3.2) - FDP 9.4 (-1.4) - Left 5.2 (-0.1)
city and former district (city I, city II, suburban constituencies), towns of Eppertshausen and Münster
Odenwald
turnout 66.1 - CDU 38.3 (+2.8) - SPD 36.5 (+1.9) - FDP 8.8 (-2.9) - Greens 6.9 (-2.6) - Left 4.7 (-0.1)
district, Dieburg constituency except Eppertshausen and Münster, Offenbach suburban III constituency
Bergstraße
turnout 60.9 - CDU 40.1 (+3.6) - SPD 35.9 (+0.5) - FDP 8.6 (-2.5) - Greens 6.1 (-2.4) - Left 3.9 (-0.5)
district

Some very interesting patterns there.

[minionofmidas]

I would like to point out two factoids about turnout in Hesse:

In 13 states - all but NRW and Brandenburg - turnout dropped by more than 0.3 points at the last Landtag election.

In 13 states - all but Schleswig-Holstein and Hamburg - turnout was less than 64.3 percent at the last Landtag election.

[minionofmidas]

Not sure I'm putting much stock in this poll, but...

Forsa 02.02.2008 (change on one week previously, ie on before the Hesse election and its fallout)
CDU/CSU              35 % (-4)
SPD              25 % (-2)
FDP              11 % (+2)
Die Linke.              14 % (+2)
GRÜNE              10 % (+2)
Sonstige              5 % (0)

[minionofmidas]

Not sure I'm putting much stock in this poll, but...

Forsa 02.02.2008 (change on one week previously, ie on before the Hesse election and its fallout)
CDU/CSU              35 % (-4)
SPD              25 % (-2)
FDP              11 % (+2)
Die Linke.              14 % (+2)
GRÜNE              10 % (+2)
Sonstige              5 % (0)

That's a recipe for more Grand Coalition (with CDU even more firmly in the driver's seat).

Which is really just good news for the small parties, which will continue to gain as long as the Grand Coalition survives.

Not necessarily. Most of the time when there've been Grand Coalitions in Germany, the larger partner has benefitted and third parties have lost. A lot depends on how content people are with the Grand Coalition in question... which depends a lot on how it deports itself.

[minionofmidas]

Seat distribution in Hesse without threshold:
CDU 41
SPD 40
FDP 11
Greens 8
Left 6
REP 1
FW 1
NPD 1
Animal Rights 1

...and suddenly a grand coalition becomes almost a certainty...

[minionofmidas]

Nothing's going to happen here in Hesse until after the Hamburg elections - everyone's just too scared of voter reactions. After that, probably the FDP will quickly move into a traffic light direction. If not, we'll get Red-Green-Red.

[minionofmidas]

CDU seems to have really rebounded after the noise from Hesse stopped and von Beust signed that antikoch letter.

[minionofmidas]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Yeah, "certain" is basically "certain if the election turns out like the polls do".

[minionofmidas]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Ah, you seem correct looking a  this page. Lolz.

And that's just based on a slightly too CDU friendly exit poll, not on pre-election polling.
I don't think they're still flounting their maps based on those...

[minionofmidas]

Don't treat that even slightly seriously. Someone should dig up the ones they did prior to the last election. Worth a chuckle, even now.

Ah, you seem correct looking a  this page. Lolz.

And that's just based on a slightly too CDU friendly exit poll, not on pre-election polling.
I don't think they're still flounting their maps based on those...

How'd they do in predicting the Hessian and Lower Saxony elections recently?

final prediction:

Wrong on six constituencies (Wetzlar, Vogelsberg, eastern Wetterau, western Wiesbaden, northeastern Frankfurt, Dieburg)

[minionofmidas]

Today: Hamburg State Elections

Oh. Right. I'd almost forgotten. The Atlasian elections are more important.

[minionofmidas]

On these results it's actually preferable that the FDP get in, weird as it sounds. (The prevention of as many black-green coalitions as possible, except as a last resort, must have a high priority for anyone interested in the Green Party's long term survival. That much should be clear to anyone who's analysed the Hesse results. Which means that the narrower the theoretical majority for black-green, the better.)

There doesn't seem to be any good election coverage on the web, at least not from official sources.

[minionofmidas]

Ahh, good coverage at the Spiegel website.

[minionofmidas]

The so called "Wahl-Kabine" (Polling Booth) for Lower Austria is now online, created by the political science wing of the Danube-University in Krems and the Ministry of Education and Culture.

KPÖ 88.4
Greens 82.1
SPÖ 65.2
BZÖ 38.7
ÖVP 33.8
FPÖ 31.9

[minionofmidas]

There#s also one for Hamburg (there wasn't one for Hesse. )

My result

[minionofmidas]

Green collapse in traditional strongholds, as evidenced by Frankfurt and Wiesbaden results, continues in Hamburg. The Spiegel website doesn't report turnout by neighborhoods, just vote shares (frigging journalists), so I don't know if the highly peculiar "collapse of a party's vote share in its strongholds, coupled with unusually strong turnout in its strongholds" (something I basically do not recall seeing ever before, anywhere in the world) picture from Frankfurt holds.

This is the continuous belt of Green >20 neighborhoods in Hamburg in 2004, presented west to east. First result is 2004 (CDU-SPD-Greens), second is 2008 (same plus Left):

Ottensen            25.3 - 32.3 - 32.6  22.2 - 40.4 - 21.6 - 10.6
Altona North       22.8 - 35.3 - 31.1  17.8 - 43.0 - 20.7 - 13.4
Altona Old Town 27.0 - 34.7 - 25.6  21.4 - 41.1 - 17.5 - 13.7
Eimsbüttel          28.9 - 33.3 - 28.3  26.5 - 39.6 - 19.5 - 8.7
Hoheluft West    34.8 - 33.3 - 24.1  30.6 - 38.6 - 17.2 - 6.9
Hoheluft East     37.1 - 33.8 - 21.7  38.4 - 33.8 - 16.4 - 5.0
Sternschanze     16.1 - 29.5 - 40.5  13.3 - 40.7 - 24.9 - 16.2
St Pauli               19.8 - 28.2 - 38.6  15.3 - 41.2 - 21.0 - 15.0
New Town          32.6 - 34.6 - 22.9  29.7 - 38.6 - 15.3 - 8.9
Rotherbaum       41.5 - 28.9 - 22.1  39.7 - 32.4 - 14.4 - 5.5
St Georg             31.3 - 29.0 - 28.9  29.8 - 35.7 - 17.9 - 10.2
Hammerbrook     26.9 - 25.5 - 35.1  20.9 - 36.3 - 21.1 - 10.6

[minionofmidas]

Final results:
turnout 63.4

CDU 42.6
SPD 34.1
Greens 9.6
Left 6.4
FDP 4.8
all others under 1

[minionofmidas]

Ah, an interesting tidbit from a pollster...
The discussion about cooperation etc with the Left does not directly hurt the SPD in the sense of voters going over from it to the CDU. But it did help the CDU win voters - elderly Working Class Tories mostly, to use the British phrase - who might otherwise have stayed home. Although it's hard to tell apart disgust at the SPD for perhaps contemplating governing with "communists", and disgust at the German people in general for voting for "communists".

[minionofmidas]

Hesse: Chances for a SPD/Green minority government, which would be tolerated by the Left, have increased. It's now sort of a official back-up plan. For the time being, the SPD still seeks a coalition with the Greens and the FDP or with the CDU... let's see for how long.

Hamburg: CDU prefers a coalition with the Greens. However, the Greens seem to be somewhat reluctant. If this fails, the most likely outcome would be a Grand coalition (a cooperation between the SPD and the Left in Hamburg is far less likely than in Hesse).


Ah, and I will take that Austria test as soon as I have the time.

humm, the Danish comments I have read are pretty sure that the Greens will coorporate with CDU - They basically think that SPD, Linke and Greens can't work together (I personally don't know why not!)

There's a strong popular perception of the CDU having won the election in Hamburg. And as late as ten years ago, cooperating with the Greens was a hard sell to parts of the Hamburg SPD (and vice versa - which doesn't bode too well for Black-Green either.)
Basically, the media and the CDU are saying it'll be Black-Green, because neither the media nor the CDU want yet another Grand Coalition. The Greens' opinions are not, at this point, taken into account.