Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[minionofmidas]

I'll go out on a limb (possibly eat my words) and predict an easy Labour hold in Sedgefield and a narrowish but not ultra-narrow Lib Dem gain in Southall right now, with the Tories in third.

[minionofmidas]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

The Green candidate, Sarah Edwards, is white (but I know nothing of her religion) which may make her the only white candidate. This would help the Greens (but sadly for the wrong reason).. There's a reasonable chance of them saving their deposit anyway as they came close to doing so in 2005 and they have a decent level of support in some wards in the east of the constituency.

In relation to my previous point, didn't the Greens once do surprisingly well in a Bradford ward because theirs was the only candidate who was white?

Constituency, not just ward. Saved their deposit in 2001.

[minionofmidas]

"British Natural Party"?

[minionofmidas]

It's safe to say that, as least as far as Southall politics go, Labour and the Tories are really one party, not two. Which is throwing away what should be a safe seat by running two candidates.

[minionofmidas]

Post by Nick Palmer M.P over at politicalbetting.com (and if thee wants to gloat or mope loadly or whatever... please do it over there, not here)

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I think we all know what "simply not saying" indicates. Sigh.

What a fucking Hindutva Nazi.

The Labour-Tory wrangling with the defections 'n'all was just typical Indian politics at its worst - which even in India voters tend not to reward anymore, if there's a decent alternative around. And I quite wondered how the seat's posh Whites would react to it. Which was part of what my "Lib Dem gain" claim was based on. Well. Fell on my face with that.

Apparently, Ealing Southall saw the lowest swing against a governing party held seat since the Conservatives held Beaconsfield in 1982, when the losing Labour candidate at the time was a young barrister by the name of Tony Blair

Interesting. I suppose that's only in seats held by the governing party before the by-election though?

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I agree with this prediction.

[minionofmidas]

The Labour-Tory wrangling with the defections 'n'all was just typical Indian politics at its worst - which even in India voters tend not to reward anymore, if there's a decent alternative around. And I quite wondered how the seat's posh Whites would react to it. Which was part of what my "Lib Dem gain" claim was based on. Well. Fell on my face with that.

Interestingly enough, there were a few reports during the campaign that what Labour were really worried about was the possibility of the white vote lining up behind the LibDem; didn't happen in the end, but methinks that more whites voted LibDem than any other party.

I guess that this thread needs a photo of Sharma's battlebus. Not been able to find one until today:



The McDonalds sign is in the background, not on top of the bus.

Aw. It's a beauty.

[minionofmidas]

I wonder how the BNP would have faired in ES had they ran a candidate. UKIP's vote was derisory both here (0.78%) and in Sedgefield (1.92%)

Dave

Badly.